Trading Johnson

There are no real positives to trading Randy Johnson...yes getting back prospects 1-2 years ready for MLB is a good thing... but for all the drama..Johnson has given the Yanks what they needed since he came to the team 200+ innings and 17 wins per season. Now that a lesser pitcher might have done even better is why they are trading him away..the Yankees would be fine without Johnson if they can put Pettitte in his place..Pettitte should be able to win about as many games as Johnson did.although it is hard to imagine him giving so many 7-8 inning performances. This comes back to the trade of Johnson you need to add a starter and a reliever to replace him. The Yanks don't have the replacement starter ... they will have to find one from Pavano, Rasner, Karstens, and Humberto Sanchez. Sanchez might be the best arm and Karstens the most consistent in this group. The Yanks could still sign a budget guy like Piniero who has a good upside. The reliever could be Britton obtained from the Orioles, Gonzales from Pittsburgh, or TJ Beam from AAA. Mussina, Pettitte, Wang, Igawa could be a very solid rotation in front of a five deep bullpen of Britton, Bruney, Proctor, Farnsworth, and Mo and a spot lefty. Pavano will be a good test of whether the Yankees have a legendary degree of patience to go with their legendary offense this season.

Igawa Could be a Kei

Kei Igawa may wind up being the best bargain of the winter even better than the fantastic bargain of Angels sending the best set up man in the game-Brendan Donnelly- to Boston for a broken down minor league lefty. Donnelly like most Angels pitchers benefited from a high level of defense and Scioscia calling pitch sequences. He may merely be excellent in Boston rather than fantastic as he was in California. Igawa with the Yankee offense and relief may wind up starting 30 games and winning 12-15 games. Beckett won 15 for the Sox last season for a lot more money. Igawa will have to learn to compete in MLB and adjust to the hitters and the strike zone but he has the tools to do it--a strong personality, a decent fast ball, excellent control and a good change up. Once hitters time his fastball he will be able to get swings and misses with his change of speed. Johnson will probably be traded but I don't see the Yankees signing Zito. There will be a great deal of angst but $140 m is just too much to invest in one pitcher. The Yanks can trade for better from Florida or even Arizona and promote Hughes and Humberto Sanchez in the second half of the season.

Pitching is still the goal

The Yankee offseason goal has not changed--Pitching. Now, they have made some progress they lost Wright and his iffy five innings. He has been replaced by an unknown Igawa who has promise. If Igawa can learn to be as effective here as he was in Japan, he will be as good as the Yankee have. They added Pettitte to be the No.2 starter behind Mussina. Wang, Igawa, Mussina, and Pettitte. This group has an upside in Wang and Igawa who will offer some opportunity for growth based on age and experience. Now the No.5 guy is Randy Johnson but he may not be able to go in the first half--Pavano if he is between injuries may be called upon rather than traded--Pavano needs to pitch in the 2nd half of the season because next year is his walk year-when he has to earn his next contract. Pavano could be helpful this year if he wants to show the league he is a good investment for the next four years. The bullpen needs another high quality arm--Gonzalez from Pittsburgh would be good but not if it costs Melky-- Melky Cabrera could be a .280/30 hr/100 rbi guy in the outfield with some speed that's a high price for a lefty setup guy. The Yankees need to find an Owner who will be "lodge brother" nice to them the way the Angels gave Boston a great -all star - reliever Brendan Donnelly for a rookie with a bad arm-- wow, that Boston front office--legendary , eh? I think the Angels would have traded Donnelly to the Yankees for say Rivera, Arod, Jeter, and Phillip Hughes and $100m to adjust salaries.

Red Sox Have Huge Talent Edge over the Yankees

Mike Bauman writing for MLB.Com baseball perspectives says the the Red Sox signing of Matsuzaka was needed to even the field with the Yankees, who- over and over let it said- have more money. Bauman is a great writer but on this point he is so very wrong. The Red Sox started the off-season with a dominant advantage in talent over the Yankees. There is no doubt: Schilling over Johnson; Beckett over Mussina; and Papelbon over Wang. The only Yankee advantage is Rivera and you need a lead for that to work. The Sox have the same formula that Detroit used to destroy the Yankees in the playoffs- dominant starters with or without pine tar on their hands. The Yankees should not do well head to head against the Red Sox--but last season they destroyed Boston -head to head- because Boston didn't play hard enough to win. In 2007, the Yankees will be less imposing without Sheffield- Abreu is not the same caliber hitter and cannot handle an elite fast pitch. Boston started with an advantage and then broke the bank to sign Matsuzaka away from the Yankees because they had more money to spend--They can find bullpen help from their deep, minor league system--also loaded with talent. The Sox now have an insurmountable paper advantage in talent--only they can mess up the season and lose to the Yankees--despite their talent --AGAIN.

Clemens Can Help

The Yankees will look at Roger Clemens for the 2nd half of the upcoming season and there will be opportunities there. Clemens could come in and amp up the rotation--the no.5 starter might be moved to the bullpen and the plans to bring up some of the young arms might be postponed but it would be a thrill for the Yankee fans to see Clemens back in a pennant drive.
Boston has a huge advantage in talent over the Yankees. They have Matsuzaka now giving them four aces while the Yankees have none. They have time to fill their weakness at the closer spot; they have six-seven young arms starting with Lester, DelCarmen, and Hansen ready to play. They have Manny, Ortiz, and Drew in the rbi slots--they have COCO CRISP-- so it's hard to see how they can lose the AL East..but somehow..someway ..i expect they will. Even when they win a battle they seem to step in it--look at Matsuzaka-- they have already set the NEGATIVITY stage by signing him for Gil Meche money. His Agent can't wait for free agency for this guy at then end of his contract--like Clemens and Pedro before him- he may be the next late, great Boston pitching star--even before he signs his first deal--incredible.

Class

Maybe there is something to this Class thing that Yankees fans keep talking about-I have been hearing it for decades in connection with the Yankees--their class and their occasional lapses too- Irabu wasn't a toad--he just had a worn out arm- sort of like Randy Johnson--both managed to win in NY. Now the Matsuzaka thing--the Wednesday fly back to Boston to have the physical and the signing -pretty classy, yes-- but the whining over the price-- NOT CLASSY AT ALL-- REALLY REVEALING. Like a spoiled brat the Sox Organization is just showing an infantile personality. THEY bid $52M- nobody made them do it. THEY said Matsuzaka was their next Ace--nobody made them say it- after they won the bidding. THEY SAID they beat the Yankees to Matsuzaka- ok fair enough-- NOW PAY HIM WHAT AN ACE EARNS THIS YEAR AND GET ON WITH IT--you are not entitled to get your posting money back from Matsuzaka--RED SOX ARE MAKING SCOTT BORAS LOOK LIKE A DIPLOMAT--and that takes some doing. Matsuzaka by the Red Sox own reckoning is due Pettitte type money and more--Zito type money--5yrs =$90m ( plus 52 equals $24M per year) the Yankee fans say CONGRATULATIONS! can't wait to see the $142M rookie pitcher.

Red Sox : ADrama in Two Parts

This will be brief--Yes the Red Sox have put out some press that Matsuzaka is in danger of failing--they have themselves to thank for the mess they are in--they have set the value on this player by the size of the posting fee. $50M is hard to ignore--that's half a Carlos Lee, or 45% of a Beltran or Soriano-- of course those deals are for multiyears and at 5 years the Sox have already agreed to pay $10M per year. Add to that the salary(with no luxury tax) and you have a 18M/year player--whoa that puts the player salary below Lilly and Meche- Matsu is a Lilly and a Meche --so Pettitte money is called for --that would put Matsu at $27M per year for five years of a guy who's arm has been put through the Japan baseball wringer. Well as you all know, it is the Yankees who have caused all of this--well after all if the Yankees had signed Matsu they would have an edge in talent--well they didn't sign Matsu, they don't have an edge in talent; they haven't had an edge in talent since 1998. What we are seeing here is the Boston Drama Club at it's best -- like a five year old's imagination--creating monsters in the dark to scare itself then bravely sticking it's head out of the closet. The Red Sox will sign Matsuzaka and again send salaries spiraling upward( Like Manny six years ago) and again they will-with a straight face- BLAME THE YANKEES.

Matsuzaka- What A Joke!

They put out a report on ESPN that the negotiations between the Sox and Boras/Matsuzaka have broken down--what a joke- Matsuzaka will be signed by the Red Sox--they cannot fail to do this after selling it to their fan base and to the Japanese public as well--and whatever they spend will be recovered in the business cycle of the next several seasons- in all likelihood- due to increased income from the Japan market. Matsuzaka is not needed by Boston true--they already by their own admission have the best starting rotation in baseball Schill, Beckett, and Papelbon are Aces--nobody else has three--many like the Yankees don't even have ONE. They have made it their mission to put four Aces on the field with Wakefield and they will need to do that in order to get into the playoffs. For Boston- just having the best talent is never enough..they seem to want a team that can't possibly lose. Most teams have rarely had a hitter as dominant as either Ortiz or Manny--they have both. Varitek is the best catcher in the league and Lowell is the best 3B --and they got rid of that awful Damon and now have Coco Crisp!! You would think that they would put some of that young pitching into a deal for a closer. They have given away the kind of talent(Annibal Sanchez) that they are paying $100m for this year in Matsuzaka-- and that says a lot about why Yankee fans so enjoy watching Red Sox Nation. So enjoy the drama but we all know how this story ends- they sign Matsuzaka.

Relief Takes Center Stage

Welcome back Andy Pettitte and say goodbye to the mystery of the starting rotation: Pettitte, Mussina, Wang, Igawa, and the best prospect(Karstens, Rasner, Sanchez) will start the spring and could be effective with the Yankee offense behind them IF the bullpen does its job and Rivera, Farnsworth, Bruney, and Proctor is not an overwhelming group. Dotel was part of the plan to create a dominant bullpen but he got well, got expensive, and got lost to KC--so where do you find a dominant arm-- nowhere-so look for great young arms to groom for the role you will need in September. TJ Beam showed he had a world class arm- mid-90's velocity but needs to develop his off speed pitches. If he does he will play a big role- to relieve or avoid fatigue in the middle reliever group. Britton -obtained from the Orioles- showed he could handle the role of the first guy out of the pen-usually 5th-6th inning for 3-5 outs. He could be a key this season if he can handle 50-60 innings in about 40-45 appearances-he would solve the bullpen problem which is they lack about 60 innings of work to avoid overuse of the middle relievers: Proctor and Bruney and a lefty to be named. The Yankees found Jose Veras late last year- a good short/middle man. Rivera and Farnsworth will split the save situations about 80%-20%. Farnsworth and Bruney figure to handle critical 8th inning spots. Proctor will wind up working 6-9 depending on the game and could be the guy who saves the pen by effectively holding leads. The Yankees still need to find their lefty.

Now There Are Signs of Life

Andy Pettitte coming back to the rotation is really icing on the cake--the real news is that the Yankees have demonstrated the curious situation of spending for talent in MLB today. There has been this article of faith the the Yankees have driven the market to extremes there has been a campaign against them--sort of like in Gulliver's travels when the giant got hogtied by the Little people--and a special punishment tax-now at 40%. The tax is a simple confiscation and for years the teams that got the money seemed to pocket it. Now and this has almost always been the case the Yankees have been hampered by the incredible spending of the other teams. Ted Lilly is not a $10m/ year talent. Good teams beat him like a drum. Gil Meche has potential but he should deliver on it before he gets more than the payroll of three or four teams. Pettitte is not worth $20M but he is worth $14-15m ( what he got less the tax) in todays market he might have gone for more. The Yankees didn't do Manny for $18M five years ago. They didn't do Arod for $25m, they didn't do Beltran or Soriano either...so lets get over this anti-Yankee nonsense and deal with the real Matsuzaka-$100m+ for a rookie? For cryin' out loud--somebody is wa-a-a-y off base on who and what is driving the market for talent.

Welcome Back...

Andy Pettitte finally got the offer he should have gotten years ago to play for the Yankees. I and nearly every other Yankee fan hopes he accepts it--not just because we are tired of seeing Boston dominate the headlines-which we certainly are- but because this is one of the regrets--like when Rivera misplayed the bunt in the series against Arizona--double play world series title--error -world series loss--letting Pettitte go was a big error.
It is not that he is the best lefty in the game or even on the market--I suspect that the offer to Pettitte would equal the offer to Zito on a per year basis-- but Pettitte was one of the guys in the organization who seemed to be the kind of player you needed for the Yankees--he was above all the nonsense and craziness of NY--he had a firm compass for his life and he seemed to be able to find joy in being a Yankee. Only a few seem to be able to survive and prosper in Pinstripes--Bernie , Jeter, Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte came out of AAA Columbus and seemed to take going to the big club in stride. Anyway, in life there are only a few chances it seems to do something over and do it right--this week the Yanks got a do-over and have done it right.

Yankees on the Right Course-Sox Maybe Not

The Yankees have Kei Igawa coming on board with $26m in posting fees and will try to close the deal for four years @$6/year- roughly what they paid Jaret Wright less the tax- Wright was a $10m guy ($7m + 40% tax). The Yankees think Igawa can give them more than Wright which would be 180-190 innings and 18 quality starts. The key is in the poorer starts can Igawa go more innings than Wright and the answer is probably yes. Igawa has a strike out arsenal- a good fastball and a curve or change. Wright had a good fastball but a flat slider and a poor change. Wright couldn't avoid contact. Igawa represents a potential upgrade--he hasn't played yet so who knows. The Sox on the other hand are heading towards the Red(faced Sox again. Matsuzaka can hold them up and they will be paying him more than Schilling, Beckett, or Wakefield. Papelbon willl earn a small %ge of Matsuzaka money. The Sox don't need Matsuzaka-they have Lester and Hansen and some other young arms backed up at AAA. They are going to force themselves into some trades for offense by giving up young pitching like last year with Arroyo. They seem to be afraid to trade Manny- the Yanks traded Sheff- for very little really- but they kept Melky Cabrera to be the OF for the next decade. The player the Yankees should covet is Florida's Miguel Cabrera ( Sanchez, Britton, TJ Beam, and even Melky) get this guy if you can- put him at 1b and break the Curse of the GOP.

Starting Pitching for '07- update

Johnson, Mussina, Wang, Igawa, and the best two of Rasner, Karstens, Humberto Sanchez will form the Yankee rotation to start the season unless something better comes along. Pavano will have to prove he is either ready to pitch or not tradeable to stay with the big club or he could be the best paid guy in AAA. The Yanks have moved on from Pavano and will try to hold on until their young arms are ready to take on the leading roles. They have a decent rotation and a good bullpen with Mo,Farnsworth, Proctor, and Bruney. They will have Britton and Jose Veras in AAA. They need a lefty or two and could keep Villone until a better option appears. If they had to go with Wang, Mussina, Igawa, Rasner, and Karstens-- they could still win if the bullpen and the offense can do their thing. Normally the Yanks would like to cover 1-7 with tried and true starters--but they need to make room for the young arms and this is how they used to do it. Rely on your offense and bullpen and hope the young guys build up to giving a quality start most of the time--and just as important--learning from the bad outings to improve at the major league level. Most can't just overpower hitters and if they do( see Papelbon) they can ruin a young career if allowed or encouraged to try. Pitching is an art and a science--not just a great throwing arm.

Red Sox vs.Yankees vs.Mothra

There was a very thoughtful piece on the Yankee-Red Sox rivalry moving to Japan by Fred Claire --well it has been there for quite awhile- Irabu, Soriano, Matsui were battles between the Yanks and Red Sox too. Matsui in particular was coveted by the Sox. The Sox got their revenge by convincing the other owners to tax the Yankees and take a lot of their money--now the Sox spend like a drunken sailor ( no offense to you drunken sailors out there) and probably still blame the Yankees- with a straight face no less! Fact is the Yankees have taken the post season lead by getting Igawa--Igawa is more important to the Yankees than Matsuzaka is to Boston. Yes, because the Yankees didn't have a 2nd lefty starter who could eat innings--Boston already had two #1 starters and a #2(Papelbon would be the Yankee Ace!). Now the Yankees can have Wang and Igawa to fill the 4-5 spots and give them an edge over most teams. The Yanks still need someone to replace Pavano-- Miguel Batista would be a good fit, Gil Meche could be a star in NY..the number 1 spot will wait for another season when Phillip Hughes or Sanchez or some other prospect will be ready--you know the next Andy Pettitte- a farm system guy who becomes a No.1 Starter-- sounds like a 30's novel--" A No.1 Starter Grows in the Bronx"

Yankee's Building Pitching Staff

Kei Igawa has a potential to surprise next season because he is a strikeout left hander with the kind of sneaky stuff that bothers major league hitters. Most hitters got their $ millions by turning around fastballs with their reflexes and eye-hand coordination. They swing hard, miss often, but sometimes drive the ball somewhere far away. Igawa is like Paul Byrd or Jake Westbrook putting the ball where hitters can't drive it and getting swings and misses by taking velocity off of his pitches. Igawa should start the year as the #6 starter behind Johnson, Mussina, Wang, (free agent), and Trade/free Agent). The Yankees are still looking for two starters and Gil Meche and Miguel Batista could be the two. Batista in particular because he could slide to the long relief role that the Yankees need. The guy who takes over on Johnson's frequent bad days and (about ten last season) and for Wang and Mussina (about 10 combined last season) that would be 20 games and about 50 innings plus another 10-15 innings to stay sharp. Meche would be the #5 guy and a good one. Igawa would start at six but once he adjusted he could be a #3-4-5. Igawa is a good risk and the total contract might not exceed $50m for four years including the posting fee. The Yankees have Sanchez,Karstens, and Rasner standing by--this is so different for them like "94- '96 they had good young arms (Pettitte, Rivera, Westbrook) and unlike Jeremy Bonderman--they are keeping them for their own use.

The Yankee Model

Spend big and aim high- that could be the Yankee model and now a lot more teams seem to be joining the Yankees_ this off season: Toronto and Baltimore in particular. The Red Sox belong in a different club- they are just Yankee haters and we'll deal with them later. Baltimore has been a true Yankee rival in the AL East. They dominated the Yankees during several periods and have given us some great clubs: Cal Ripken, Eddie Murray, Boog, Belanger, F.Robinson, B. Robinson, Palmer, Dobson(RIP), Steve Stone. Now they have added a bullpen (Wright, Baez added to Ray) and a number 5 starter(Jaret Wright) and they will finally stop losing all of their games to Boston. They could hit and score but couldn't hold a lead. Toronto adding Barajas, and Frank Thomas has equaled Boston on offense and exceeds them in the relief pitching. Last year Toronto finished 2nd ahead of Boston and this year they want the playoffs which means finishing ahead of Boston and NY and they are now poised to do it if they can add another starter and a reliever. Frank Thomas with Wells behind him can have another 40 HR 100 rbi year even assuming he only plays 120 games or so. The Red Sox will have to do more than block the Yankees. They have improved their rotation but now will be under pressure to improve hitting, defense, and bullpen because not just the Yankees but the whole AL East and AL Central will be loaded next season.

Boston-You have got to be Kidding?

You don't even need Matsuzaka and you know it--you only bid the money to block the Yankees. You already had the best pitching rotation on the planet- Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, and your choice of the youngsters at #5( Lester, Hansen, on and on). You just paid $100M for a number 5 starter--that is your only opening. So let's say what it really is-- a spiteful, petty move that has escalated salaries across the league-- again-- you did this before when you signed Manny to a $20m annual contract. Through it all you have railed against the Yankees and even engineered a tax on the Yankees-- who by the way have carried AL attendance to it's present all time highs. So now it is out in the open and you can't hide that you have used your competitive position to strike a blow-- well the Yankees know that you have almost always had the best talent--like last season-- and you already had the best talent before Matsuzaka. The only question for Yankee fans is how entertaining your annual collapse will be this season. Oh I know you came back from down 3-0 to win in 2004-- so let's see you do it again.. You'll have to get in the playoffs first and that will be an iffy deal for a team that plays as poorly as you did last season. You need hitters - maybe so go get Drew and see if he can play 160 games-- you need relievers- well you can take your pick in trade with the 3-4 young extra arms you have in your system--Del Carmen would be behind only Rivera in NY. So lets see if you can finish ahead of NYY, Tigers, ChiSox, Angels, Oakland, and Minnesota to even get in the big dance--at this point it looks kinda doubtful.

Cano Still Uphill

Robinson Cano had a remarkable year if only for his average-- .343- would be a career year for players rated as great hitters. Cano can probably do a lot more than he did this year. Projected to 600 at bats Cano could get 190 hits, 50 extra base hits, 20 home runs, 90 rbi. His defense at 2b is above average and he is a technique player so he can improve with experience and positioning. He may surprise in the next few years with more power hits. With Mattingly's influence he should not fall for the lefty home run trap in Yankee Stadium and continue to put the ball into the gaps. He has a knack for clutch hitting and he will learn to hit in the post season when every AB is usually against a superior pitcher. I see Cano with a few 30 hr/100 rbi seasons as he moves down in the batting order. He will have another role model this year with Abreu- a similar gap hitting left handed bat. The Yankees may be too left handed at times this season but Cano, Abreu, and Matsui each have a plan against left handed pitching only the hard throwers who pitch inside seem to give them problems but that is fairly rare in the AL these days. The Yankees lost Soriano to get ARod but with Cano at 2B- they should be just fine.

06- Young Arms in Ruin

To me, the 2006 season will be memorable for the Yankees getting waxed in Detroit, and also for the situation of two of the bright young lights in the Game Liriano and Papelbon. Both of these guys were terrific-- no that's too mild-- these guys were dominant. They changed the games in which they appeared. Papelbon had the most dominant stretch of any pitcher in recent memory-- you've got to back to Bob Gibson to find a guy with and ERA under 1.00- for a long while it was under o.50-one run every 18 innings pitched. He had the most dominant season of any reliever ever until he got injured. Liriano was much the same only as a starter. He made the Twins the favorite in any game he pitched and he blew teams away. 7-8 innings 1-2 runs 4-5 hits-- 8-9 Ks-- typical Liriano fare-- until he got hurt late in the season.
Now- the key thing about both is how they pitched-- they had aggressive patterns--that was OK. They went after and challenged hitters and gave up few walks- again --ok. They pitched a lot of innings- kind of OK but needed by their teams. They each stood on the mound and stared down the hitters making a show of it --bad, very bad, and worse it led to their injuries. They both tried to blow away hitters constantly-- neither tried to learn to pitch so that they could fool hitters- they both tried to throw the ball throw a brick wall-- this was bad management of a precious baseball resource. Boston--you expect it they had Hansen, Delcarmen doing the same thing- Minnesota knew better and with Liriano's brief history they tried to limit his innings some-- but he still threw to many max effort pitches with a delivery that stressed his arm and shoulder like few have ever done. Same with Papelbon- a delivery that stressed the shoulder and a warm up routine that stressed the shoulder( big weighted arm/shoulder swings) . I hope both recover and benefit from the experience and stop making goofy faces at batters and just let the God given talent flow in a well managed scientific approach to pitching-- win without hurting your arm by throwing so hard so often.

Hard to Rebuild on the FLY

The Yankees are rebuilding--or at least creating the option of rebuilding. They proved it by trading their best hitter to a rival(Sheff to Tigers) and pretty much sending Detroit back into the playoffs with the White Sox. This strategy will result in ONLY one AL East team going to the playoffs again this year and the Yankees' chances have gotten more difficult by the day-- Baltimore has come to life( SP Wright and bullpen Wright) and so has Toronto( Frank Thomas). Toronto's lineup is now the equal of the Yankees with Wells, Thomas, Glaus, and Overbay #s 3-6. Now the Yanks have Johnson, Mussina and Wang. They have two young starters to break in in the 2nd half( Sanchez, Rasner) with 2 more for emergency service( Karstens, Hughes). The Yankees believed that their offense was good enough to win behind an above average starter who could eat 6-7 innings giving up 3-4 runs. Damon, Jeter, Abreu, ARod is a speedy, good hitting group of athletic players--add Matsui, Cano, and Posada and you have a good group- Giambi is the other power guy. This group will win if the have decent starters because the bullpen core is solid:Rivera, Farns, Bruney, and Proctor(with Britton in reserve). They could be competitive with Meche, Suppan, or even a lefty from Japan -Kei Igawa. So they key is pitching because without Sheff they cannot plan on overpowering people.

Pitching is still the goal

This off season the Yankees will probably add a bat to the 1B position and maybe a combo guy who can dh from the right side...but if they leave their offense alone they can expect an improvement next season over last season with the growth of Cano, Cabrera, and Damon in their Yankee roles- Cano seems to have the talent to hit in the .300 plus range and get 200 hits, Damon can hopefully not break his foot this spring, and Cabrera needs to learn to lay off the 1st pitch strike. ARod can have a better year than last season just by making more productive outs- if you can't handle a pitch with one out, two strikes and a man on 1st- hit the ball where you can advance the runner, and develop a sac fly stroke--The Yankees will miss Sheff- he was their best hitter-- and there will be days next season when a quicker bat could have saved a defeat- on the other hand--Detroit will play Boston and Toronto too. Pitching is the thing and last season the Yanks found Karstens and Rasner and they will be back next year in roles. Britton can pitch and he and Bruney can handle the 7th innings leaving Farnsworth and a Lefty set up guy to handle the 8th innings-- Johnson, Mussina, and Wang are the top 3-- they Yanks will have to sign a righty and a lefty( from Japan maybe?)--Gil Meche would be good, Suppan would be OK- or they can package some depth to Chicago for Freddy Garcia- Proctor as the No.5 guy would be good if they can replace the 50-55 good relief appearances he had last year--big "if", eh?

So Far Sox Are Winning Offseason Race

You knew it wouldn't end with the big sweep- the Red Sox are like the MLB equivalent of a horror movie monster-- no matter what you do to it --it keeps coming back-- well they're Ba-a-a-ck! The Sox have set up the best rotation that anyone has ever heard of by getting Matzunaka ahead of the Yanks, Mets, Angels, and Cubs-- but oh what a price! This guy will wind up at $20m per year on a five year deal or $120m on a 7 year deal--and these guys have the nerve to tax the Yankees for driving up the price of player payroll- the Yankees didn't do ARod, or Beltran and they didn't do Matzunaka. The Yankees will have to do it without their best hitter having sent Sheff to Detroit. Sheff was a victim of his ability to irritate people. The Yankees needed him in their batting order but they knew it would been too difficult to have Sheff and a team of 24 other guys. this season the Yanks will live under their new rules of discipline and at this pint they look like they will roll behind some young pitchers: Sanchez-should be up after the break; Rasner should be the number 5 guy after Pavano's next injury; Sanchez is intriguing-- a NY kid with a big fastball and curve package-- and Karstens will be No.6 unless Jorge Depaula can come back next spring and impress. It will be more useful than trying to survive the days like when Jaret Wright struggled last season and when Johnson played hurt

Matsuzaka- Very Interesting

The Red Sox have won the Matsuzaka skirmish of their 100 year war between the Yankees and Red Sox- frankly the Yankees ought to be more worried about Detroit. The Red Sox added Matsuzaka to an already stellar pitching staff- Schill-Beckett-Wakefield- Papelbon was already a dominant big four adding Matsuzaka as a 5th guy is ridiculous if it limits them in finding offense and defense. They have Varitek, Ortiz, Manny, and Lowell in the 3,4,5 and 6 spots in the order and that is great. They still have Coco Crisp and Youkilis. They need a LF, SS and 2B and Soriano is out there for them to thrill the fans and he would smoke the left field wall. The money spent on Matsuzaka could have gotten Soriano and Clement could have been traded for a closer to say Baltimore( for Ray) or to a NL club like Houston for Lidge-- there are a lot of deals out there for what little they need--BUT NOOOOO they had to go mess up the Yankee bid for Matsuzaka. Well they could always eat the costs and try to trade Matsuzaka to Texas for -say- Teixera--but if they don't sign Matsuzaka they still win and that is bad for baseball even among friends like the Commissioner and the owner of the Red Sox-- evidently the Japanese club needs the cash or they wouldn't be out there selling their version of Sandy Koufax . If it is a block, it could cost the Red Sox $90 Million over five years-that $ could have been used to beat the Yankees on the the field.

Best Team on the Block

I saw a comic in Mad Magazine once and it showed four Pizza stores on a street with different signs- Best Pizza in town said one empty store, Best Pizza in the Country said the second empty store; Best Pizza in the World-they had one customer- til finally the last store- with a mob of customers in front- "Best Pizza on the Block"-- the Yankees have made a change in policy this year -they are trying to be the best team on the block. The Tigers and Cardinals played for the series- neither had a better offense than the Yankees- both had better pitching and that made their defenses better than the Yankee defense. Now the Yanks have traded Sheff and Wright and will try to resign Mussina within budget limits. They lost their bid for Matsuzaga on budget limits which hurts but they got a good young arm for Sheff which helps. In '07 they can add Humberto Sanchez, in '08 they can add Phillip Hughes- now they need to sign two starters to cover the loss of the soon to be injured Pavano and Wright- with Boston out of the way they may be able to sign Zito or Schmidt-- Boston will now be able to trade Matt Clement back to the NL with their rotation set with Papelbon, Matsu, Schilling, Wakefield, and Beckett--the Yankee fans say lets hope they are the best team in the world.

New Look for '07

What will the '07 yanks look like- on offense? They will be better: Damon-Jet-Abreu- Arod -Giambi-Matsui-Posada-Cano-Wms would be a great 1-9 order. If they go to the market for offense it would be for a star or a future star because nothing less would add anything. The top four can hit,slug, run, and steal. They must add situational hitting skills to move runners and not wait for home runs to score. The key on offense is depth- Cabrera is the extra OF and they need a catcher who can hit enough to be out there for 2025 games to let Posada have some rest. Matsui, ARod and Giambi need frequent days off to max their output and for Matsui this means DH days. Reserve IF could be Cairo again or someone with more speed and defensive range. They could add a 1b/OF or 1b/3b and that would be good if a righty could come on board for balance. They should bring back Andy Phillips. The minors will have three OF ready for spot duty( Tabata should be one) and two reserve infielders-Eric Duncan should be one and Vecchionacci the other. The Yanks will add veteran players for depth to stay at AAA until they are needed. A little more speed and defense in the reserves is all that is needed.

Red Sox Are Back

Just when it looked like Toronto had overtaken the Red Sox the Sox strike back and have put together an awesome rotation: Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, and Matsuzaga. Their #6 guy Matt Clement would be the Ace on the Yankee staff. Such dominance added to Ortiz and Manny, Lowell, Varitek, and the CF defense of Coco Crisp- the Sox may not lose 40 games this season. The Yankees don't stand a chance of doing as well against the league as the Red Sox and the Sox are just getting started.
The Yankees have showed dicipline in the last two years and it has cost them because they do not have an effective rotation. If they sign Mussina they will go with Wang, Mussina, Johnson, Karstens, and Rasner. Pavano is presumably injured and unavailable. It is still early but they Yanks will have to sign a #3 starter like Schmidt, Zito, Lilly, or Suppan just to fill out a roster of veteran arms-- the Sheffield trade now takes on some importance--the Yanks need to convert Sheff into a starter and a high level pitching prospect-- say like Bonderman and Ledezma from the Tigers-- and they could throw in Pavano and half his salary. Score a big win for the Red Sox.

Beckett, Schilling, Halladay, Burnett, Kazmir THEN Wang-that's a ranking of starters in the AL East. The best Yankee starter is #6 in the division--at best. That is why the Yanks have two starters on their must do list by free agent or trade. A trade might send Pavano and Sheff to the White Sox for Freddy Garcia and a prospect one year away from pitching in the bigs--that would be a good trade but it wouldn't change the first sentence in this blog! The Yanks would like to have two starters in the top ten in their division preferably at least one in the top 3 and two in the top 6-- like Boston and Toronto. They can get there if they trade for Bonderman, Contreras, or maybe if they sign Zito- that is a push but Beckett and Burnett are injury prone and underachieve so that Zito would match them in wins with the Yankee offense behind him --even though he is not at the talent level of the other two. Matsuzaga is an important possibililty because if the Yanks somehow get to sign him-he could be a big winner like Wang-- foreign trained in the old school fundamentals which Beckett, Burnett and Papelbon seem to lack-- a solid guy, no drama, just play hard and find a way to win. Zito or Contreras or Schmidt plus Matsuzaga minus Pavano--that's a winning formula. But the Yanks are probably not ready to pull the plug on the Pavano adventure.

Matsuzaka Is Not A Key for '07

Matsuzaka is not part of the things that they Yankees need in '07 to win the AL( They are not allowed to win the world series because there will be a Republican in the White House--the Curse of the GOP-bino) but he is part of what makes it so special to be a Yankee fan in the Steinbrenner Era. Matsuzaka might be Roy Oswalt or Curt Schilling--or Hideki Irabu-- no one really knows--but the same excellent international scouting that brought them Matsui and Contreras is at work and that is a very good sign that Matsuzaka will be a very good pitcher. What Matsuzaka does bring is that mystery of possible excellence--another reason to see or follow the team--he could be a guy who comes in and has a 14K night--or a 20 win season-- or a string of scoreless innings. Jose Contreras was such a figure and his talent backed it up--in Chicago-- ARod will probably not be traded for the same kind of reason--does he have a 60 home run season in him? The minds of the fans enjoy such games and the Yankees give you plenty to anticipate- Cano as batting Champ? Giambi as home run champ? Rivera as --well- Rivera-- this is great stuff-- most teams have it but nobody puts it together like Steinbrenner's Yankees. Now about that Curse.... Curses are made to be broken -ask the 1 out of 86 Red Sox!

Starting Pitching for '07

An area of big need for the Yanks is the top of the order. Randy Johnson won 17 games last season and if he were the Ace- it would be ok with a big offense behind him he could win 17 again with good health. The Yanks will probably bid for the Japanese Star Matsuzaka and he looks like the real deal. Getting him is a long shot so the best free Agents may be Schmidt and Zito. The Yanks could use them both but Zito is the likely one to pursue-- I saw Zito twice last season against the Yanks--he got hammered once and did well the second game-late in the year-. He won 17 with a small ball offense and superior defense behind him. Johnson, Wang, and Zito would be OK 1-3-- add in Mussina and Wright and you would have a shot at keeping your bullpen from flaming out--all except Wright would give you 6-7 innings per start-- Notice that Pavano is missing from the list-- yes, and he managed to miss all of last season too. The Yankees can no longer rely on him to pitch for them and if he were still on the roster in the spring he will have to earn a spot-- I think a NL team like St Louis of SF would trade for him--if the bidding got serious the Mets might join in too--somehow - I don't see Pavano in Yankee pinstripes next year--but he has shown the talent to win 15 plus- and that is still hard to find these days- maybe to the White Sox for say - Jose Contreras?

Bullpen Choices

The Yankees need an upgrade to their bullpen --not because they had bad players or that they performed badly--when they were needed during the regular season --the bullpen came through ok. In some instances, they were dominant for stretches during the season of five to ten games at a pop--problem was always overwork. Proctor in particular was overworked. The Yanks expected Dotel in the second half and he didn't get back in time to help. The plan was a good one- Rivera, Farnsworth, and Dotel would give you a dominant 8th-9th combo with three arms to cover the setup and closer innings. The problem was the 6th and 7th--so many games where the starter was gone or ineffective put the bullpen in the 6th inning of a majority of the games. Brian Bruney came in and really helped so he and Proctor look like the 7th inning guys for next year with Farnsworth and Rivera in the 8th and 9th. That leaves the Yankees wanting for two more solid arms --a lefty and a righty to handle the 6th inning needs- Villone had a few great efforts -he is a possibility- AAA has Henn and Karstens they could get the nod at least to start the season- Dotel could end the whole discussion- resign him and work him in the early innings until the 2nd half and as his arm strength and control return he can move to the back of the Pen as the ultimate 8th inning warrior- like Tom Gordon. I would sign Dotel and stay on plan --it was a very good plan and it could help them have a very good year.

ARod or Not ARod

That is the question on the minds of Yankee fans and it really doesn't matter as much as one might think--oh sure ARod is a fabulous ball player and even his poor seasons are full of highlights and amazing performances--unfortunately for ARod playing in NY means playing in front of some of the most spoiled fans( I am certainly one of them so I know of what I speak) in all of creation--and some of the most savvy. Yankee fans know a big moment and they remember the guys who deliver something at the big moments-- those "refuse to lose" moments-- those "big momentum" moments-- Jeter diving into the stands face first-- Bernie hitting a rbi hit in the late innings to bring us back to within striking range-- Posada turning on a fastball in the World Series- Strawberry's power, Tino's steady play, Rivera, Paul O'Neil.. a long list of clutch players. Arod is different he will amaze you with a 3 homer, 10 rbi game and then drive you mad leaving the runner at first with nobody out late in a game-- if he has a fault to his game-- he doesn't give in to the situation and this violates the team concept that the Yankees use as a rule-- rules are broken and I have seen Jeter and Posada and Bernie swing for thye fences when a ground ball to the right side is needed-- the Yankees pick each other up and work as a team when they play well. If ARod were traded the Yankees would still have a fabulous offense without adding another player--they could promote from the minors or sign a cast off and keep on truckin'-- but with ARod they Yankees give their fans another thought of greatness- the expectation of seeing something truly memorable- 160 rbis, 70 homers, a 4 homer game, a season long exhibition of excellence and hard-nosed play, like Jeter did last year, like Cano can do next year, and like some future unknown young kid from the minors in some future season.

TIGERS ARE A FORCE, FEEL BETTER?

NO- heck NO! Yankee fans feel cheated this season by the Motown Mow Down but they know that they were badly outpitched--there is something else there too-- the meltdown by Detroit against KC--KC beat them five in arow before the playoffs and it cost them a division title --now long forgotten in Detroit- bu-u-u-t in the process the Tigers gained the advantage of zero expectations- a lighter yoke to bear than "George expects his team to win the World Series"--but the radar guns tell a more important tale in the run up to the playoffs the Tiger starters and Zumaya in relief turned into breaking ball pitchers- if you scouted the last 10 Tiger games you saw starters throwing a lot of change ups and breaking balls many of whom left KC bats and found the outfield turf. In the playoffs they turned it around and added 5 mph to the fast pitches and you could throw out those scouting reports- if it had been a horse race they would have been testing saliva- Kenny Rogers at 94-95mph wow he couldn't have done that when he was in his 30's. So the Yanks were caught by surprise but they were beaten by a better pitching staff than they have had for the last four seasons.

It Got Late Early this Season

Yogi must be as shocked as most casual Yankee fans at how their season ended in Detroit--but truth is the Tigers had more talent where it mattered most- STARTING PITCHING AND MIDDLE RELIEF. Joe Torre won four titles with arms like Cone, Pettitte, Wells, Clemens, Rivera, Stanton, Nelson and Mendoza among many others. That was good starting pitching, good middle relief and a great closer. They lost to Arizona with a pretty good pitching staff because Arizona got lucky in a close game 7. They were dominated by Florida in the Series- young arms, upper 90's, and great defense. Jim Leyland has been there before and his teams know how to win. The Tigers are just starting to get some respect from fans and media but the OWNERS NEED TO HAVE THE NATIONAL LEAGUE WIN THE WORLD SERIES because the growing belief that their league is inferior might begin to hurt them at the gate-- Tigers go to the Series but the Mets would be favored to win if they are the opponent. It will depend on the health of the Tiger relievers because they are having some problems now with Zumaya... Yankee fans can look forward to an off season where some big needs get looked at with much more urgency--look for some big efforts to trade for young power arms.