Red Sox vs.Yankees vs.Mothra

There was a very thoughtful piece on the Yankee-Red Sox rivalry moving to Japan by Fred Claire --well it has been there for quite awhile- Irabu, Soriano, Matsui were battles between the Yanks and Red Sox too. Matsui in particular was coveted by the Sox. The Sox got their revenge by convincing the other owners to tax the Yankees and take a lot of their money--now the Sox spend like a drunken sailor ( no offense to you drunken sailors out there) and probably still blame the Yankees- with a straight face no less! Fact is the Yankees have taken the post season lead by getting Igawa--Igawa is more important to the Yankees than Matsuzaka is to Boston. Yes, because the Yankees didn't have a 2nd lefty starter who could eat innings--Boston already had two #1 starters and a #2(Papelbon would be the Yankee Ace!). Now the Yankees can have Wang and Igawa to fill the 4-5 spots and give them an edge over most teams. The Yanks still need someone to replace Pavano-- Miguel Batista would be a good fit, Gil Meche could be a star in NY..the number 1 spot will wait for another season when Phillip Hughes or Sanchez or some other prospect will be ready--you know the next Andy Pettitte- a farm system guy who becomes a No.1 Starter-- sounds like a 30's novel--" A No.1 Starter Grows in the Bronx"

Yankee's Building Pitching Staff

Kei Igawa has a potential to surprise next season because he is a strikeout left hander with the kind of sneaky stuff that bothers major league hitters. Most hitters got their $ millions by turning around fastballs with their reflexes and eye-hand coordination. They swing hard, miss often, but sometimes drive the ball somewhere far away. Igawa is like Paul Byrd or Jake Westbrook putting the ball where hitters can't drive it and getting swings and misses by taking velocity off of his pitches. Igawa should start the year as the #6 starter behind Johnson, Mussina, Wang, (free agent), and Trade/free Agent). The Yankees are still looking for two starters and Gil Meche and Miguel Batista could be the two. Batista in particular because he could slide to the long relief role that the Yankees need. The guy who takes over on Johnson's frequent bad days and (about ten last season) and for Wang and Mussina (about 10 combined last season) that would be 20 games and about 50 innings plus another 10-15 innings to stay sharp. Meche would be the #5 guy and a good one. Igawa would start at six but once he adjusted he could be a #3-4-5. Igawa is a good risk and the total contract might not exceed $50m for four years including the posting fee. The Yankees have Sanchez,Karstens, and Rasner standing by--this is so different for them like "94- '96 they had good young arms (Pettitte, Rivera, Westbrook) and unlike Jeremy Bonderman--they are keeping them for their own use.

The Yankee Model

Spend big and aim high- that could be the Yankee model and now a lot more teams seem to be joining the Yankees_ this off season: Toronto and Baltimore in particular. The Red Sox belong in a different club- they are just Yankee haters and we'll deal with them later. Baltimore has been a true Yankee rival in the AL East. They dominated the Yankees during several periods and have given us some great clubs: Cal Ripken, Eddie Murray, Boog, Belanger, F.Robinson, B. Robinson, Palmer, Dobson(RIP), Steve Stone. Now they have added a bullpen (Wright, Baez added to Ray) and a number 5 starter(Jaret Wright) and they will finally stop losing all of their games to Boston. They could hit and score but couldn't hold a lead. Toronto adding Barajas, and Frank Thomas has equaled Boston on offense and exceeds them in the relief pitching. Last year Toronto finished 2nd ahead of Boston and this year they want the playoffs which means finishing ahead of Boston and NY and they are now poised to do it if they can add another starter and a reliever. Frank Thomas with Wells behind him can have another 40 HR 100 rbi year even assuming he only plays 120 games or so. The Red Sox will have to do more than block the Yankees. They have improved their rotation but now will be under pressure to improve hitting, defense, and bullpen because not just the Yankees but the whole AL East and AL Central will be loaded next season.

Boston-You have got to be Kidding?

You don't even need Matsuzaka and you know it--you only bid the money to block the Yankees. You already had the best pitching rotation on the planet- Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, and your choice of the youngsters at #5( Lester, Hansen, on and on). You just paid $100M for a number 5 starter--that is your only opening. So let's say what it really is-- a spiteful, petty move that has escalated salaries across the league-- again-- you did this before when you signed Manny to a $20m annual contract. Through it all you have railed against the Yankees and even engineered a tax on the Yankees-- who by the way have carried AL attendance to it's present all time highs. So now it is out in the open and you can't hide that you have used your competitive position to strike a blow-- well the Yankees know that you have almost always had the best talent--like last season-- and you already had the best talent before Matsuzaka. The only question for Yankee fans is how entertaining your annual collapse will be this season. Oh I know you came back from down 3-0 to win in 2004-- so let's see you do it again.. You'll have to get in the playoffs first and that will be an iffy deal for a team that plays as poorly as you did last season. You need hitters - maybe so go get Drew and see if he can play 160 games-- you need relievers- well you can take your pick in trade with the 3-4 young extra arms you have in your system--Del Carmen would be behind only Rivera in NY. So lets see if you can finish ahead of NYY, Tigers, ChiSox, Angels, Oakland, and Minnesota to even get in the big dance--at this point it looks kinda doubtful.

Cano Still Uphill

Robinson Cano had a remarkable year if only for his average-- .343- would be a career year for players rated as great hitters. Cano can probably do a lot more than he did this year. Projected to 600 at bats Cano could get 190 hits, 50 extra base hits, 20 home runs, 90 rbi. His defense at 2b is above average and he is a technique player so he can improve with experience and positioning. He may surprise in the next few years with more power hits. With Mattingly's influence he should not fall for the lefty home run trap in Yankee Stadium and continue to put the ball into the gaps. He has a knack for clutch hitting and he will learn to hit in the post season when every AB is usually against a superior pitcher. I see Cano with a few 30 hr/100 rbi seasons as he moves down in the batting order. He will have another role model this year with Abreu- a similar gap hitting left handed bat. The Yankees may be too left handed at times this season but Cano, Abreu, and Matsui each have a plan against left handed pitching only the hard throwers who pitch inside seem to give them problems but that is fairly rare in the AL these days. The Yankees lost Soriano to get ARod but with Cano at 2B- they should be just fine.

06- Young Arms in Ruin

To me, the 2006 season will be memorable for the Yankees getting waxed in Detroit, and also for the situation of two of the bright young lights in the Game Liriano and Papelbon. Both of these guys were terrific-- no that's too mild-- these guys were dominant. They changed the games in which they appeared. Papelbon had the most dominant stretch of any pitcher in recent memory-- you've got to back to Bob Gibson to find a guy with and ERA under 1.00- for a long while it was under o.50-one run every 18 innings pitched. He had the most dominant season of any reliever ever until he got injured. Liriano was much the same only as a starter. He made the Twins the favorite in any game he pitched and he blew teams away. 7-8 innings 1-2 runs 4-5 hits-- 8-9 Ks-- typical Liriano fare-- until he got hurt late in the season.
Now- the key thing about both is how they pitched-- they had aggressive patterns--that was OK. They went after and challenged hitters and gave up few walks- again --ok. They pitched a lot of innings- kind of OK but needed by their teams. They each stood on the mound and stared down the hitters making a show of it --bad, very bad, and worse it led to their injuries. They both tried to blow away hitters constantly-- neither tried to learn to pitch so that they could fool hitters- they both tried to throw the ball throw a brick wall-- this was bad management of a precious baseball resource. Boston--you expect it they had Hansen, Delcarmen doing the same thing- Minnesota knew better and with Liriano's brief history they tried to limit his innings some-- but he still threw to many max effort pitches with a delivery that stressed his arm and shoulder like few have ever done. Same with Papelbon- a delivery that stressed the shoulder and a warm up routine that stressed the shoulder( big weighted arm/shoulder swings) . I hope both recover and benefit from the experience and stop making goofy faces at batters and just let the God given talent flow in a well managed scientific approach to pitching-- win without hurting your arm by throwing so hard so often.

Hard to Rebuild on the FLY

The Yankees are rebuilding--or at least creating the option of rebuilding. They proved it by trading their best hitter to a rival(Sheff to Tigers) and pretty much sending Detroit back into the playoffs with the White Sox. This strategy will result in ONLY one AL East team going to the playoffs again this year and the Yankees' chances have gotten more difficult by the day-- Baltimore has come to life( SP Wright and bullpen Wright) and so has Toronto( Frank Thomas). Toronto's lineup is now the equal of the Yankees with Wells, Thomas, Glaus, and Overbay #s 3-6. Now the Yanks have Johnson, Mussina and Wang. They have two young starters to break in in the 2nd half( Sanchez, Rasner) with 2 more for emergency service( Karstens, Hughes). The Yankees believed that their offense was good enough to win behind an above average starter who could eat 6-7 innings giving up 3-4 runs. Damon, Jeter, Abreu, ARod is a speedy, good hitting group of athletic players--add Matsui, Cano, and Posada and you have a good group- Giambi is the other power guy. This group will win if the have decent starters because the bullpen core is solid:Rivera, Farns, Bruney, and Proctor(with Britton in reserve). They could be competitive with Meche, Suppan, or even a lefty from Japan -Kei Igawa. So they key is pitching because without Sheff they cannot plan on overpowering people.

Pitching is still the goal

This off season the Yankees will probably add a bat to the 1B position and maybe a combo guy who can dh from the right side...but if they leave their offense alone they can expect an improvement next season over last season with the growth of Cano, Cabrera, and Damon in their Yankee roles- Cano seems to have the talent to hit in the .300 plus range and get 200 hits, Damon can hopefully not break his foot this spring, and Cabrera needs to learn to lay off the 1st pitch strike. ARod can have a better year than last season just by making more productive outs- if you can't handle a pitch with one out, two strikes and a man on 1st- hit the ball where you can advance the runner, and develop a sac fly stroke--The Yankees will miss Sheff- he was their best hitter-- and there will be days next season when a quicker bat could have saved a defeat- on the other hand--Detroit will play Boston and Toronto too. Pitching is the thing and last season the Yanks found Karstens and Rasner and they will be back next year in roles. Britton can pitch and he and Bruney can handle the 7th innings leaving Farnsworth and a Lefty set up guy to handle the 8th innings-- Johnson, Mussina, and Wang are the top 3-- they Yanks will have to sign a righty and a lefty( from Japan maybe?)--Gil Meche would be good, Suppan would be OK- or they can package some depth to Chicago for Freddy Garcia- Proctor as the No.5 guy would be good if they can replace the 50-55 good relief appearances he had last year--big "if", eh?

So Far Sox Are Winning Offseason Race

You knew it wouldn't end with the big sweep- the Red Sox are like the MLB equivalent of a horror movie monster-- no matter what you do to it --it keeps coming back-- well they're Ba-a-a-ck! The Sox have set up the best rotation that anyone has ever heard of by getting Matzunaka ahead of the Yanks, Mets, Angels, and Cubs-- but oh what a price! This guy will wind up at $20m per year on a five year deal or $120m on a 7 year deal--and these guys have the nerve to tax the Yankees for driving up the price of player payroll- the Yankees didn't do ARod, or Beltran and they didn't do Matzunaka. The Yankees will have to do it without their best hitter having sent Sheff to Detroit. Sheff was a victim of his ability to irritate people. The Yankees needed him in their batting order but they knew it would been too difficult to have Sheff and a team of 24 other guys. this season the Yanks will live under their new rules of discipline and at this pint they look like they will roll behind some young pitchers: Sanchez-should be up after the break; Rasner should be the number 5 guy after Pavano's next injury; Sanchez is intriguing-- a NY kid with a big fastball and curve package-- and Karstens will be No.6 unless Jorge Depaula can come back next spring and impress. It will be more useful than trying to survive the days like when Jaret Wright struggled last season and when Johnson played hurt

Matsuzaka- Very Interesting

The Red Sox have won the Matsuzaka skirmish of their 100 year war between the Yankees and Red Sox- frankly the Yankees ought to be more worried about Detroit. The Red Sox added Matsuzaka to an already stellar pitching staff- Schill-Beckett-Wakefield- Papelbon was already a dominant big four adding Matsuzaka as a 5th guy is ridiculous if it limits them in finding offense and defense. They have Varitek, Ortiz, Manny, and Lowell in the 3,4,5 and 6 spots in the order and that is great. They still have Coco Crisp and Youkilis. They need a LF, SS and 2B and Soriano is out there for them to thrill the fans and he would smoke the left field wall. The money spent on Matsuzaka could have gotten Soriano and Clement could have been traded for a closer to say Baltimore( for Ray) or to a NL club like Houston for Lidge-- there are a lot of deals out there for what little they need--BUT NOOOOO they had to go mess up the Yankee bid for Matsuzaka. Well they could always eat the costs and try to trade Matsuzaka to Texas for -say- Teixera--but if they don't sign Matsuzaka they still win and that is bad for baseball even among friends like the Commissioner and the owner of the Red Sox-- evidently the Japanese club needs the cash or they wouldn't be out there selling their version of Sandy Koufax . If it is a block, it could cost the Red Sox $90 Million over five years-that $ could have been used to beat the Yankees on the the field.

Best Team on the Block

I saw a comic in Mad Magazine once and it showed four Pizza stores on a street with different signs- Best Pizza in town said one empty store, Best Pizza in the Country said the second empty store; Best Pizza in the World-they had one customer- til finally the last store- with a mob of customers in front- "Best Pizza on the Block"-- the Yankees have made a change in policy this year -they are trying to be the best team on the block. The Tigers and Cardinals played for the series- neither had a better offense than the Yankees- both had better pitching and that made their defenses better than the Yankee defense. Now the Yanks have traded Sheff and Wright and will try to resign Mussina within budget limits. They lost their bid for Matsuzaga on budget limits which hurts but they got a good young arm for Sheff which helps. In '07 they can add Humberto Sanchez, in '08 they can add Phillip Hughes- now they need to sign two starters to cover the loss of the soon to be injured Pavano and Wright- with Boston out of the way they may be able to sign Zito or Schmidt-- Boston will now be able to trade Matt Clement back to the NL with their rotation set with Papelbon, Matsu, Schilling, Wakefield, and Beckett--the Yankee fans say lets hope they are the best team in the world.

New Look for '07

What will the '07 yanks look like- on offense? They will be better: Damon-Jet-Abreu- Arod -Giambi-Matsui-Posada-Cano-Wms would be a great 1-9 order. If they go to the market for offense it would be for a star or a future star because nothing less would add anything. The top four can hit,slug, run, and steal. They must add situational hitting skills to move runners and not wait for home runs to score. The key on offense is depth- Cabrera is the extra OF and they need a catcher who can hit enough to be out there for 2025 games to let Posada have some rest. Matsui, ARod and Giambi need frequent days off to max their output and for Matsui this means DH days. Reserve IF could be Cairo again or someone with more speed and defensive range. They could add a 1b/OF or 1b/3b and that would be good if a righty could come on board for balance. They should bring back Andy Phillips. The minors will have three OF ready for spot duty( Tabata should be one) and two reserve infielders-Eric Duncan should be one and Vecchionacci the other. The Yanks will add veteran players for depth to stay at AAA until they are needed. A little more speed and defense in the reserves is all that is needed.

Red Sox Are Back

Just when it looked like Toronto had overtaken the Red Sox the Sox strike back and have put together an awesome rotation: Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, and Matsuzaga. Their #6 guy Matt Clement would be the Ace on the Yankee staff. Such dominance added to Ortiz and Manny, Lowell, Varitek, and the CF defense of Coco Crisp- the Sox may not lose 40 games this season. The Yankees don't stand a chance of doing as well against the league as the Red Sox and the Sox are just getting started.
The Yankees have showed dicipline in the last two years and it has cost them because they do not have an effective rotation. If they sign Mussina they will go with Wang, Mussina, Johnson, Karstens, and Rasner. Pavano is presumably injured and unavailable. It is still early but they Yanks will have to sign a #3 starter like Schmidt, Zito, Lilly, or Suppan just to fill out a roster of veteran arms-- the Sheffield trade now takes on some importance--the Yanks need to convert Sheff into a starter and a high level pitching prospect-- say like Bonderman and Ledezma from the Tigers-- and they could throw in Pavano and half his salary. Score a big win for the Red Sox.

Beckett, Schilling, Halladay, Burnett, Kazmir THEN Wang-that's a ranking of starters in the AL East. The best Yankee starter is #6 in the division--at best. That is why the Yanks have two starters on their must do list by free agent or trade. A trade might send Pavano and Sheff to the White Sox for Freddy Garcia and a prospect one year away from pitching in the bigs--that would be a good trade but it wouldn't change the first sentence in this blog! The Yanks would like to have two starters in the top ten in their division preferably at least one in the top 3 and two in the top 6-- like Boston and Toronto. They can get there if they trade for Bonderman, Contreras, or maybe if they sign Zito- that is a push but Beckett and Burnett are injury prone and underachieve so that Zito would match them in wins with the Yankee offense behind him --even though he is not at the talent level of the other two. Matsuzaga is an important possibililty because if the Yanks somehow get to sign him-he could be a big winner like Wang-- foreign trained in the old school fundamentals which Beckett, Burnett and Papelbon seem to lack-- a solid guy, no drama, just play hard and find a way to win. Zito or Contreras or Schmidt plus Matsuzaga minus Pavano--that's a winning formula. But the Yanks are probably not ready to pull the plug on the Pavano adventure.

Matsuzaka Is Not A Key for '07

Matsuzaka is not part of the things that they Yankees need in '07 to win the AL( They are not allowed to win the world series because there will be a Republican in the White House--the Curse of the GOP-bino) but he is part of what makes it so special to be a Yankee fan in the Steinbrenner Era. Matsuzaka might be Roy Oswalt or Curt Schilling--or Hideki Irabu-- no one really knows--but the same excellent international scouting that brought them Matsui and Contreras is at work and that is a very good sign that Matsuzaka will be a very good pitcher. What Matsuzaka does bring is that mystery of possible excellence--another reason to see or follow the team--he could be a guy who comes in and has a 14K night--or a 20 win season-- or a string of scoreless innings. Jose Contreras was such a figure and his talent backed it up--in Chicago-- ARod will probably not be traded for the same kind of reason--does he have a 60 home run season in him? The minds of the fans enjoy such games and the Yankees give you plenty to anticipate- Cano as batting Champ? Giambi as home run champ? Rivera as --well- Rivera-- this is great stuff-- most teams have it but nobody puts it together like Steinbrenner's Yankees. Now about that Curse.... Curses are made to be broken -ask the 1 out of 86 Red Sox!

Starting Pitching for '07

An area of big need for the Yanks is the top of the order. Randy Johnson won 17 games last season and if he were the Ace- it would be ok with a big offense behind him he could win 17 again with good health. The Yanks will probably bid for the Japanese Star Matsuzaka and he looks like the real deal. Getting him is a long shot so the best free Agents may be Schmidt and Zito. The Yanks could use them both but Zito is the likely one to pursue-- I saw Zito twice last season against the Yanks--he got hammered once and did well the second game-late in the year-. He won 17 with a small ball offense and superior defense behind him. Johnson, Wang, and Zito would be OK 1-3-- add in Mussina and Wright and you would have a shot at keeping your bullpen from flaming out--all except Wright would give you 6-7 innings per start-- Notice that Pavano is missing from the list-- yes, and he managed to miss all of last season too. The Yankees can no longer rely on him to pitch for them and if he were still on the roster in the spring he will have to earn a spot-- I think a NL team like St Louis of SF would trade for him--if the bidding got serious the Mets might join in too--somehow - I don't see Pavano in Yankee pinstripes next year--but he has shown the talent to win 15 plus- and that is still hard to find these days- maybe to the White Sox for say - Jose Contreras?