The Yankees are Paying these Guys?!

Opening Day 2007 and the best lineup in the game came to bat in the first inning. Talent after spectacular talent, young, cheap and talented: Tampa Bay was that much better than the Yankees in talent. Baldelli, Dukes, Upton, Crawford will someday be the the big TB machine, they are awesome talents, and the Yankees don't matchup beyond Rivera, Jeter, and Arod, they don't have the athletes that TB has. So why are the Yankees paying TB and the rest of baseball. The commissioner and his boys have pulled off one of the biggest heist/flimflams of baseball history with the Yankee tax. Forcing the Yankees to pay double for lesser talent that is thrown at Tampa and the 2--time champion Marlins is a crime. The Yankees for their part would be fair to burn up their roster and put the AAA squad out there. But Steinbrenner cares and he won't, but the Commissioner and his boys should be laughing all the way to the bank...they have even convinced the world that payroll wins titles even though the Yankees will be o-7 at the end of this season unless they can beat the rest of baseball on and off the field...most unlikely, but they, unlike TB and a few others, will try.

Opening Day

If this were October, the Yankees would be in trouble Pettitte, Mussina, Pavano would be at a disadvantage against most of the likely contenders(Detroit, Boston, Minnesota, and Toronto).
This is not October and the Yankees have time to develop more pitching talent. Next season looks better yet with Hughes and Wang between Pettitte and Igawa and some young flamethrowers(Sanchez,Betances,among others) in reserve. This year the formula is solid starters and shut down relief for as long as it takes. The Angels used this formula in 2002 and it can work in front of a productive offense. The Yankee weakness is their overall defense which is why they added Mientkiewisc and his pitcher's bat to their lineup to stop the easy hits past 1B. The Yankees will have to rely upon their toughness this year. They are not even in the top 10 in talent on the field and have to overcome three far more talented teams in their own division( luckily one of them is Tampa who refuse to win) but Boston and Toronto have superior talent but so far have not shown the will and toughness to knock out the Yankees. This should be a wonderful season for those who like offense and scoring.

Improving the Yankees

The Yankees will have to consider improvements because they have fallen behind so many teams in overall talent. They have also decided to feature internal development which has a history of including a few but important trade and free agent acquisitions. Also and this is really strange the yankees may need to move minor league talent to make room for ...minor league talent. AAA Pennsylvania will have a rotation that is NYC bound: Hughes, Sanchez, Ohlendorf, Clippard all project to be with the big club with Wang to form an all-farm rotation that would be competitive even ion the AL East.
They have Cano, Cabrera, Sardinho and Tabata to add to the prior generation of Jeter, Matsui, Damon, and Miranda who could be a big star for years to come. Now the opportunities: Andruw Jones. Miguel Cabrera, Johan Santana, Joe Mauer, and Houston Street. The no1 is Cabrera and 2 is Mauer Santana no. 3. Cabrera is clutch and he is the ARod we never saw in NY. Mauer is a catcher, a plus defender who can hit. Street could replace Rivera--somewhat. The odd thing is that the Yankees have enough talent in their system to acquire these guys by trade: Pavano, great young arms: Beam, Chamberlain, Betances, White, Britton, and position talent Brett Gardner can be a star, Duncan can hit, Gonzales a great SS-- they can do these..it will be fun to see if any of these future marquee players get turned into today's marquee players.

Good Pitching plus great hitting equals ?

The Yankees hope that having a strong starter every day will make up for the lack of star power in their rotation. There is some precedent for this the 2006 Yankees led the league in scoring and won their division with hitting. Their pitching failed them in the playoffs and their offense did too. They would have been stronger in the playoffs if they had one other starter than Wang and Mussina at the top of his game..they didn't and couldn't win a pitcher's duel..only a high scoring game. This season it may not matter because they face long odds of getting to the playoffs, but they have the potential to develop some long relievers to let Torre pull an ineffective starter early in a crucial game, or to hold a team down in the 4th-6th innings on a given day. This is often done with some young hard thrower and the Yankees have Sanchez, Ohlendorf, Britton, Beam and a few other young power arms to consider. The Yankee bullpen could be a factor too Vizcaino, Bruney, and Proctor are three proven options for the early or middle innings. This would leave Farnsworth and Rivera to close. Like the big Red Machine and some 1950's era Yankee teams...they will try to do it with good pitching, superior relief, and superior hitting.

Boston will have to work hard this year

Boston has assembled a hand of four aces, Toronto finished 2nd last season, the Yankees improved their pitching and depth... what will happen? This year Boston will have to exceed it's normal effort to mess up this season. On paper they may have their best pitching ever...clearly the best in the league this season. Detroit would be a poor second, the Yankees somewhere in the upper one third. Boston has great defenders to go along with the dominant starters...so look for Boston to build a big lead in the AL East and coast to the division title while the Yankees battle for their lives with Toronto, Detroit, Texas, and Oakland. Now if Boston does not run away early..things could get dicey because the Yankees are loaded with trading chips: Pavano + cash; high quality prospects from AAA and depth players. Will Florida decide it can trade Cabrera and still be on track for 2008? Will Minnesota trade Santana while his value is still high( three high level prospects at this time). So if Boston doesn't play hard they will have a chance to see the Yankees make a big deal and catch up in talent a bit before the pennant chase. This season it is truly difficult to imagine that Boston will not blow away the division: four aces usually beats jacks and tens.

2007 NY Yankees : Defense

Team defense will be a strength of this edition. The infield will have Jeter and Cano who have learned from a year of playing together to be a superior Double Play Combo. They don't have great range but will be superior behind good pitching that will produce a lot of mishit ground balls. Third and First will be superior when Mientkiewisc is at first and averge when Giambi is there. Giambi is an average fielder but doesn't throw well and amazingly that comes up a lot when he is on the field..the ball finds him.
Outfield defense is a strength with only Damon's weak arm as a weakness. Melky will play some CF and then they will be a superior group. Abreu is an underrated defender as is Matsui. Both will make outstanding plays look routine.
Pitchers play defense too and Mussina is one of the best. Pettitte is very good and has a great pick-off. Wang is very good for a ground ball guy that is important. Igawa and Pavano are unknowns but neither has a reputation for poor fielding.

2007 NY Yankees : Offense

The lineup is strong behind Boston and Toronto in the division and LA and Minnesota in the league..on a par with Detroit and Tampa. Talent wise that is how the Yankees stack up but in performance they will probably be the top offense in the league. The key is hitting and base running ... the area of Yankee advantage with Abreu, Jeter, ARod, Cano, Matsui, Cabrera, and Damon the Yankees will be effective on the bases unlike Minnesota, Boston, and Toronto..and on a par with Detroit and LA. The Yankees will come at you with walks, hits and xtra base hits... Damon, Jeter, Abreu figure to give Giambi and Arod two RBI opportunities per game. Behind those two are Matsui Cano and Posada.. if the Yankees really do go on with the ridiculous Mienkiewisc at 1b..that will be the only easy out in the lineup and the reason the offense seems to take a step backwards from last season. The Yankees will still have a power game with Giambi and ARod. In his walk year ARod may have a dynamic season. He will opt out of his contract and leave the Yankees in the hunt for a replacement star in a year when Andruuw Jones might become available(Abreu is in the last year) and when they may want to promote Eric Duncan to play 3B. They should be trying for Miguel Cabrera from this point forward too.

2007 NY Yankees : Relief Pitching

It begins and ends with Mariano Rivera. Mo is the cornerstone and he seems to be solid as ever based on last season. The bits get dicier from that point as Bruney becomes the second most important reliever because like Rivera he is lights out when he is on his game. Bruney can freeze hitters and he may become the 8th inning preference for Torre despite Farnsworth whose bad back has him on the great when available list. The Yankees have a lot of save opportunities and late inning holds too so there is a need for three pitchers to cover the 8th inning or slide to the 9th when Mo is on his rest days and Proctor is the the third guy. Proctor stepped up last season and has now taken the swing man role of middle/late. This makes the Yankee bullpen deep and flexible and resistant to overwork. They have two guys to handle the middle inning Vizcaino and the lefty Meyers or TBA or Britton obtained from Baltimore. The Yankess have a little depth too: Jose Veras came on strong once he figured out his spots for his fastball and he can contribute this year along with TJ Beam. All in all a deep and flexible group and a team strength.

the 2007 NY Yankees : Starting Pitching

First in a five part series... Mussina, Pettitte, Wang, Igawa, and Pavano are penciled in for the rotation and it is good enough to win the American League in front of a top offense. The weak link is Pavano since no one knows if he will compete. If he resembles the fellow from Florida the Yankees will be in good shape: a 6-7inning quality performance three+ out of five outings.
The issue is health//depth. Nos. 6-9 are important and here they are young Karstens, Rasner, Sanchez, Hughes in that order then Clippard and a host of other possibles--they have good young arms not much experience. The Yankees seem willing to try their kiddie corps after seeing Detroit succeed and Boston flame out last year doing the same thing...they feel thay can manage it and Cashman has gathered the personnel to give it a good test. The view here is that Sanchez is ready to shine and Karstens and Rasner would be decent at the back end of the rotation and hold their own. Hughes is ready to be a No.3 it is better to wait uintil September if possible--or at least til July. Then there is the Clemens factor. I see Clemens going anywhere but NY... but id he lands in NY then Pavano would become a trade and the Yanks would try to build towards another important goal: somehow getting Miguel Cabrera.

Bringing Up the Young Arms

Detroit showed as Florida showed before them..you can go a long way with good young pitchers. The guys who can still erase their mistakes with a high hard fastball. The problem is that it usually costs the team one or two seasons before the young arms learn to win at the MLB level...the Yankees will bring them in one at a time if they can. They let Hughes stay down last season and will start him at AAA this year if possible before a second half call up. That leaves them 60% of goal with Hughes and Wang and Igawa. Sanchez and Clippard are next in line but might not get the permanent promotion this season..but at least some MLB starts in September. If Pavano goes bad again then there would be some stars to sprinkle around all of these young arms. The Yankees won last year with key starters having ERA in the 5.00 range...these new guys may be able to do better than that even in the AL East where every team throws and explosive offense at you every game. Matsuzaka vs. Hughes... is a matchup that the Yankee fans can look forward to for some seasons to come.

Yankees on a Budget?!

The Yankees are starting to worry their fans...they seem serious about their budget! They are going into the season with Pavano penciled into the rotation..a five pitcher rotation- no 6th or even 7th guy to stand and wait for injury or ineffectiveness. All is not lost this may wind up as a very interesting year..the year the home grown Yankees start to arrive for the next phase of the Dynasty. Humberto Sanchez, Phillip Hughes, Tyler Clippard are planned to follow Wang into the rotation from the Minor League System joining old man Pettitte and Kei Igawa over the next two seasons. They could pitch in relief some to gain confidence except for Hughes who is redy for a spot in the order. The most pressing order of business for the Yankees is their future catcher not their pitching... they now have answers at AAA.
NOTES: If the Helton deal does not go... I think it still will...Boston will look back and say: best deal we didn't make this offseason was keeping Mike Lowell. Boston will have to invent a closer but still have a huge talent edge in offense, defense, and pitching over the entire league.

Helton will help

The Red Sox will likely get Todd Helton a player the Yankees wanted a few years back and it will give them a big edge over the Yanks on the days when Mienkiewisc(sp) is in the lineup. But if the Sox give up Lowell it will be an overall negative for them. Lowell was their best clutch hitter for big parts of the season last year and was their best defender. Helton is a top defender but doesn't figure to give the punch that Lowell did...and his health is a question mark. Overall this would not be good for Boston so don't expect the Red Sox benevolence society aka the baseball owners to let it stand. The deal will sweeten for Boston. They may still play for keeps on the field in MLB but in the Selig ERA the owners have shown that they are not concerned about winning on the field as in playing boardroom games: Angels sent Donnelly to Boston for a sore armed minor leaguer, Schilling to Boston for a guy on the DL...don't get me started!

Yankees Pitching Progression

The Yankees have seen the effects of the Cashman plan now. They had a great offense last season even with the loss of two the games leading run producers. Arod could bounce back and Abreu is an underrated player who could do a lot more than last year too. Last year they were undone by poor starting pitching from Johnson, none from Pavano, and little room for error against teams with good pitching. Now there is a difference.. The Yankees would like to have a guy on the mound each game who can hold the opposition to 3-4 runs o er 6+ to 7 innings. Now they have that possibility with Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, and Igawa( who translates into a 4.40 range ERA). The fifth starter should be the top minor league pitcher who is ready for promotion to the bigs and here the menu is : Rasner, Karstens, Sanchez, Ohlendorf, and White. Phillip Hughes will be brought uip on club decision in September for a few starts unless necessity requires an earlier callup. This is the progression factor: Pavano is there if he earns it. If Clemens sign then Pavano might be traded before the deadline. Clemens spot would be replaced by Hughes in 2008 when Sanchez too would come up. The Yankees are creating the possibility of an all homegrown rotation headed by Hughes and Wang and including Igawa, Sanchez, Ohlendorf or White or Clippard.. a progression..nice.

Yankee Posibilities

One of the cool things about following the Yankees is that if you imagine the possible moves they might make, well many could happen, here are a few:
Add Johan Santana in trade- Yankees have three major league ready young arms in Humberto Sanchez, White, and Whelan plus JB Cox, Henn, Beam, and Britton. This is one that could happen and help both teams.
Add Miguel Cabrera in trade- This is the one player that the Yankees would like to add and then find a way to put him on the field with their other young stars Melky and Cano. The Yankees have some arms to trade but the Marlins seem to want a catcher and a CF. So this is one to watch for as the Yankees groom some AAA OF talent and Eric Duncan add a couple of reliever arms ( Beam, Britton) and this one could happen. Cabrera with the Yankees would play OF but I would let him choose 1B and that would be an all- world infield [ARod-Jeter-Cano-Cabrera].
Couldn't happen, well just let the Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Orioles get close on either one of these and it would happen!

Replacing Randy Johnson...

Andy Pettitte is now the top Yankee lefty starter. I expect he could win as many games as Johnson given similar run support. Kei Igawa replaces Pavano who gave nothing last season and Jaret Wright who filled in at times with excellence. Igawa may be able to get 12 wins and replace Wrights win total. Both Pettitte and Igawa figure to reduce the burden on the bullpen...Johnson had a high number of low inning starts and ineffective starts.
Mussina and Wang could each duplcate last years performance with similar results leaving the nig mystery as Pavano..the Yankees have options there in order: Rasner, Karstens, Sanchez, and Hughes..or they could sign Clemens or trade for a Number 1 from Minnesota, Oakland, or Florida where their abundance of good young arms and position players and young hitters would be enough to get a high priced starter. The Yankees believe they can succeed with good starting pitching behind their offense if they have a deep bullpen. Adding Vizcaino deepens the pen to the point where they have Bruney, Britton, Farnsworth, Rivera, Proctor, and Vizcaino coming off 50 plus appearances last season.. a solid base.

The Classic Yankees Style

The Yankees had a style in the 20's-30's they were an offensive machine most years ..Ruth, Gehrig, through DiMaggio. The 50's another powerhouse Dynasty. Steinbrenner has built o few offense powerhouse teams too... but the mostly didn't win... 2007 promises to be a throwback to the 50's-- solid pitching, superior relief, and great hitting. Power, yes , but not the staple--the bread and butter will be hitting and the defense will be led by solid starting roles... no Cy Young Awards.. solid -keep em in the game every day type pitching. Randy Johnson proved over the past two seasons that inconsistency hurts the team more than the good days help the team. The offense is a mental grind in baseball... watching pitch after pitch, each at-bat a battle..that's what makes the Yankees who they are on offense. They get mentally worn down by the days when it is so much easier for the opponent to score. They have decent team speed and superior base running but hitting is the key Jeter, Damon, Cano, and Abreu are legitimate 200 hit guys; ARod, Giambi, Matsui, and Posada can give 170-180 hits... add in the walks and you have a tremendous number of base runners and runs. So solid pitching is adequate against the league to produce 95-100 wins if the bullpen can hold leads and keep it close too...Vizcaino, Bruney, Proctor, Farnsworth, and Rivera look like an able group for 300 innings... the young arms will be there this year to fill the gaps..Britton, Beam, Rasner, Karstens, and Sanchez..so its back to the future --Yankee style

Johnson Trade- a sign of the times..

After the Yanks were knocked out by the Tigers ... I wrote that they would add young power arms this off season while others talked about Barry Zito, Schmidt etc.. The Yanks lost Matsuzaka to Boston where he may become the next Pedro Martinez. The Yanks gained ground yesterday when the traded Randy Johnson...yes that was a gain... they could replace Johnson's innings and performance with Igawa who projects to a 4.50 era and 12-15 wins if they could add another effective reliever...they did in Vizcaino. He has pitched in the AL on some talented teams like the CHISOX championship edition. He has the arsenal to be dominant for an inning...that completes the replacement of Johnson. Now the Yanks have to replace Pavano..assuming he will be unavailable or ineffective ..or both... that is where the new wave comes in ...young power arms: the Yankees have Humberto Sanchez, Phillip Hughes, White, Henn and a few others (Rasner and Karstens from last year) to plug into the fifth spot--- this is vintage Yankees: Have a strong offense so that you can afford to bring up young pitchers and still win. The Yankees can add Sanchez, Hughes, and maybe the new kid from Arizona over the next two seasons to have a potential for a home grown rotation--- wow--GO FIGURE!!!

New Year for Old Foes

The Red Sox are not the Yankee rivals that belongs to the defending Champion Tigers( still sounds weird) but the Red Sox are the team Yankee fans most enjoy beating so that's the real rivalry. The Red Sox for their part seem to exist in some strange nether world where all of the accomplisments are placed second to beating the Yankees. Something about that OH for 86 year thing that Yankee fans now understand. Yankee fan haven't won since 2000 and that is a lot longer than 86 years its 6 Steinbrenner years..that's about 100 years in interpretation to the rest of baseball..and he has spent about 100 years worth of salary. The Red Sox have loaded up and the league has shown its usual generosity like sending Brendan Donnelly for a prospect with a bad arm( again.. Schilling for Casey Fossum). The word on the street is that the Angels offered him to the Yankees in exchange for Derek Jeter and $100m the Yankees balked and only agreed to $99m but Boston out bid the Yankees with Phil Seibel. So obviously the Angels will win the league behind the 34-0 / 0.00 era performance of Phil Seibel... but if they don't Boston is the 'mortal lock '.