I like Texas for its leadership: LBJ, Barbara Jordan, Ann Richards. A long distinguished line of world leaders from Texas. Now in baseball, Texas has Nolan Ryan's leadership- and it shows. The keen eye for talent and a keener eye for power pitching. There are many brands of pitching but none more appealing to the average fan than power arms. Texas has power arms and with Yu Darvish coming on board they have drama too. The fans love this - the mystery man from overseas, how much success will he have? can he really be so dominant, so un-hittable here? They already have Josh Hamilton on offense who stirs the same vivid imagination in fans- can he hit 60 homers some year? Triple crown? Outside of Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez he may be the biggest impact player in baseball, clearly so in the American League he and Pujols will lead a dash to the playoffs with firepower.
ARod, Jeter and the Yankees now have a rival who- unlike Boston- does not usually self -destruct, implode from within and use the best talent in the game to fail miserably. Texas has back to back AL championships and also back to back World Series losses. The Yankees probably lead the game in World Series losses, they have won 27 times, lost 13 times, have also lost two in a row in the first round. Texas has what the Yankees lack right now- young pitchers to get them to the finish line still strong- depth. Now NY has the player pool it is the cycle of development that is out of whack. Banuelos and Dellin Betances are the arms needed to reach the next level for NY, joining Phillip Hughes and Ivan Nova to form the young core of the rotation. Texas already has theirs- Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando, and now Darvish. Three young pitchers throwing in the mid 90's is enough when you add other pitchers who feature some mix of movement and power - say Derrek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Scott Feldman. There is power and depth and more available still. The Yankees have to patch things together again this season. Last year Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon filled two big gaps. Colon burned out after a fine season and left a hole they could not fill in the playoffs, Phil Hughes was hurt most of the year. In 2012 Hughes, Nova, and Garcia slot in after CC Sabbathia and AJ Burnett. The Yankees have some depth in ready young arms: Hector Noesi and David Phelps. It is a rivalry and it will dominate the season and playoffs too. Somehow if the match-ups materialize: the Angels vs Texas, and Yankees vs Tigers, it would set the stage for the AL Championship- NY vs. Texas. The World Series might be an afterthought to one of the best post seasons in recent decades--as a fan-- one can only hope. but also as a fan, it will be exciting to watch!
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Saturday, November 19, 2011
2012 May Be an Epic
The Yankees come off a disappointing season, but one in which a great deal of change was folded into their mix. The prospects for the next few years are brighter because of player development and expensive signings that were not made. Dellin Betances and Many Banuelos are still Yankees. Something that cannot be said of Arodyz Viscaino traded to the Braves for Javier Vasquez. Viscaino will probably be with the big club this season and his upside is off the charts. The Yankees kept Betances and Banuelos and their upsides too are terrific. Late next season as call-ups they will get a chance to start their big league careers- if injuries they may be up after the All-Star break.
Pitching is the key, Sabathia and Mariano Rivera give you a place to start your rotation and bullpen. From within the Yankees developed a relief ace in David Robertson and have two starters too: Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova. Rafael Soriano and AJ Burnett can be better than last year and should. One more rotation pitcher plus an insurance number 6 starter are needed. They already have depth in Hector Noesi and David Phelps- call then numbers 7 and 8 in the rotation, but without a doubt they will be needed. Freddy Garcia could be the number five starter and it is a reasonable option; a free agent signing would also work-- but the market is slim and they would have to overpay enough to cancel out a more helpful addition to the offense.
Pitching is the urgent need but the offense needs some work too. Jesus Montero and Edwardo Nunez are bats from within the system ready to have an impact. Nunez is one of the best young infielders in the game, he has many tools and power that is just beginning to show- as a full time player he could easily be .290/20 hr/100 r/90 rbi/30 sb batting early or in the middle of a good lineup. Montero projects to a range of .290/20 hr/90 rbi as a catcher /dh over 120-130 games. Montero could become an outfielder- Nunez could definitely handle the outfield. The Yankees offense needs a boost and the corner outfield spots are the places where they are weakest. To improve over either Swisher or Gartner you would have to bring in a very talented hitter. The young Cuban Cespedes fascinates with his raw power- another Mike Stanton perhaps- tape measure home runs and a tough, tough out. Depth adds something to the offense too with Eric Chavez to pinch hit, Andruuw Jones possibly returning platoon in the outfield.
Small but significant changes are needed for the Yankees to reach the World Series and win it. The Yankees are ONLY on a par with Detroit- perhaps a little behind Texas. The difference maker will be team balance and completeness. Balance of very good pitching and great hitting and a roster from which significant roles and contributions come from every spot.There is a blueprint for success, a solid team with an explosive offense dominant even in the tough 2012 American League.
Pitching is the key, Sabathia and Mariano Rivera give you a place to start your rotation and bullpen. From within the Yankees developed a relief ace in David Robertson and have two starters too: Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova. Rafael Soriano and AJ Burnett can be better than last year and should. One more rotation pitcher plus an insurance number 6 starter are needed. They already have depth in Hector Noesi and David Phelps- call then numbers 7 and 8 in the rotation, but without a doubt they will be needed. Freddy Garcia could be the number five starter and it is a reasonable option; a free agent signing would also work-- but the market is slim and they would have to overpay enough to cancel out a more helpful addition to the offense.
Pitching is the urgent need but the offense needs some work too. Jesus Montero and Edwardo Nunez are bats from within the system ready to have an impact. Nunez is one of the best young infielders in the game, he has many tools and power that is just beginning to show- as a full time player he could easily be .290/20 hr/100 r/90 rbi/30 sb batting early or in the middle of a good lineup. Montero projects to a range of .290/20 hr/90 rbi as a catcher /dh over 120-130 games. Montero could become an outfielder- Nunez could definitely handle the outfield. The Yankees offense needs a boost and the corner outfield spots are the places where they are weakest. To improve over either Swisher or Gartner you would have to bring in a very talented hitter. The young Cuban Cespedes fascinates with his raw power- another Mike Stanton perhaps- tape measure home runs and a tough, tough out. Depth adds something to the offense too with Eric Chavez to pinch hit, Andruuw Jones possibly returning platoon in the outfield.
Small but significant changes are needed for the Yankees to reach the World Series and win it. The Yankees are ONLY on a par with Detroit- perhaps a little behind Texas. The difference maker will be team balance and completeness. Balance of very good pitching and great hitting and a roster from which significant roles and contributions come from every spot.There is a blueprint for success, a solid team with an explosive offense dominant even in the tough 2012 American League.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
on balance...
there is a balance that makes the essence of a team in baseball, you must hit, run, play defense, absorb the opposition's best then somehow, and often, emerge victorious; a grueling marathon march of a quarter of a man's year--a defining time for a baseball player-- the wonderment of a baseball fan.
This season for the Yankees promises to be one like few others-- when the weight of winning will be a light burden, and the joy of it usually intense. The odds are against, the deck which was always stacked-- I mean Selig and his mighty men take money from the Yankees and give it to their opponents[ this is most unusual for a competition]. Then there are the fantasies invented to vilify the team- that simply does nothing except invest in the on field product and project its legendary image: they are too big, too much money, and money buys championships. Well, just look at the National League- the Mets make a lot of money, the Marlins don't. The Marlins have won as many titles as the Mets- 2. Arizona has won more than the Chicago Cubs in the past 25 years, trails by only one despite the Cubs having a 90 year head start, and a lot of money to spend. Yankees were beaten by the Marlins in a year when the Marlins payroll would not have paid the Yankees rotation.
This year will be a year when winners win, not talent, not payroll-which is always a burden never an edge- not reputation; not home town umpiring as in Boston. None of these things will matter as much as the will to win. Tight competition, and the Yankees will have a wonderful edge in winning, they lack pitching, speed, defense in the outfield---but they have hitters who are clutch, and bullpen arms that are clutch--and will have all year to temper nerves of steely-blue like the cap, and a classic ending...like pinstripes, and an interlocking--NY
.
This season for the Yankees promises to be one like few others-- when the weight of winning will be a light burden, and the joy of it usually intense. The odds are against, the deck which was always stacked-- I mean Selig and his mighty men take money from the Yankees and give it to their opponents[ this is most unusual for a competition]. Then there are the fantasies invented to vilify the team- that simply does nothing except invest in the on field product and project its legendary image: they are too big, too much money, and money buys championships. Well, just look at the National League- the Mets make a lot of money, the Marlins don't. The Marlins have won as many titles as the Mets- 2. Arizona has won more than the Chicago Cubs in the past 25 years, trails by only one despite the Cubs having a 90 year head start, and a lot of money to spend. Yankees were beaten by the Marlins in a year when the Marlins payroll would not have paid the Yankees rotation.
This year will be a year when winners win, not talent, not payroll-which is always a burden never an edge- not reputation; not home town umpiring as in Boston. None of these things will matter as much as the will to win. Tight competition, and the Yankees will have a wonderful edge in winning, they lack pitching, speed, defense in the outfield---but they have hitters who are clutch, and bullpen arms that are clutch--and will have all year to temper nerves of steely-blue like the cap, and a classic ending...like pinstripes, and an interlocking--NY
.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
projecting the AL East
Number 1- clear and easy choice here- NY Yankees
The Yankees will play hard this year, score 900 runs as some veterans return to form-Burnett wins 15 games, Jeter, ARod, Posada and Andruw Jones turns out to be 30 homers in part time play. Eric Chavez adds a left handed power guy. The pitching takes off after a late season trade for a front end arm, and Montero adds another star quality hitter to the leagues best lineup. The Yankees depth in pitching comes through, young arms step up and in short bursts show the dominant future that is coming, Dellin Betances, Brackman, Betances...two of these will have a shot to be rising stars, Ivan Nova will surprise, he is a change-up away from being a dominant AL pitcher.Yanks win 100 games, late inning relief is the key, the offense knows a late lead is likely o win- Mo and Soriano do great in their ONE SEASON together. As a club the Yanks begin the vital transition to home grown pitching. CC will leave at the end of the season so will Soriano. So the young arms, talented arms as Phil Hughes, Banuelos, Betances begin to become the new core.
Number 2- another clear and easy choice- Baltimore Orioles- Wild card
95 wins behind a balance d pitching staff, Guthrie is an Ace, Buck Showalter gets them playing hard and the lineup is as good as any in baseball this year, Vlad has periods in Camden Yards that make the jaw drop, MVP numbers from him, Derrick Lee has so many RBI chances that he is among the leaders too. The lineup is tough, on base constantly, no easy innings, many high scoring blow outs. Roberts, Markakis,Lee, Vlad and Reynolds become as tough as any first five in the game- like the Yankees, they will explode quite a few times give five run leads to the middle relievers.
Number 3 Tampa Bay - the loss of Crawford drags the offense down while new and younger players learn to fit in. Manny has a comeback, Damon can still play and the team wins 90 games, but this year the AL East is loaded, and 90 is 5 short of pay dirt. The team will probably be close all season but fade at the end when Baltimore and new York each show a small edge.
Number 4 Toronto
this line up is the home run barrage, three 30+ home run guys( Bautista, Lind, Hill,) nearly everybody with 20+, pitching needs to grow and develop some, bullpen could be good or very good, depends on Dotel. The team wins 85 games and neck and neck with Tampa. They get chewed up by NY and Baltimore, only hold their own against Toronto but dominate Boston. They lose to the Central power teams--Detroit and Minnesota and upstarts KC, lose big to Texas..they will lose to the big offense teams who have better pitching overall, but they will bludgeon the weaker hitting teams, those without dominant pitching- Angels,KC, Cleve, Seattle.
Last Place- Boston Red Sox
the shocker, the biggest choke since...well since one of Boston's other chokes. This team has the most talent of any in the game. Best balance of pitching, defense and even has speed. Every tool to be a dominant team. By talent would not lose 40 games all season, but will probably finish with 82-85 wins and last place.This year the AL East is loaded and the teams that do not play hard will falter, a last place team with 85 wins will be a record i think, but Boston figures to play with the least intensity. They could change all this, just get off to a great start and roll behind the starting pitching and explosive offense, but day in and out they will more likely get ground down. This year every game will be intense, and Boston figures to be the least intense though most talented team. They will lose to surprising teams- Oakland, Seattle, and to teams that match up well but play harder- Texas, Minnesota, Detroit.
The Yankees will play hard this year, score 900 runs as some veterans return to form-Burnett wins 15 games, Jeter, ARod, Posada and Andruw Jones turns out to be 30 homers in part time play. Eric Chavez adds a left handed power guy. The pitching takes off after a late season trade for a front end arm, and Montero adds another star quality hitter to the leagues best lineup. The Yankees depth in pitching comes through, young arms step up and in short bursts show the dominant future that is coming, Dellin Betances, Brackman, Betances...two of these will have a shot to be rising stars, Ivan Nova will surprise, he is a change-up away from being a dominant AL pitcher.Yanks win 100 games, late inning relief is the key, the offense knows a late lead is likely o win- Mo and Soriano do great in their ONE SEASON together. As a club the Yanks begin the vital transition to home grown pitching. CC will leave at the end of the season so will Soriano. So the young arms, talented arms as Phil Hughes, Banuelos, Betances begin to become the new core.
Number 2- another clear and easy choice- Baltimore Orioles- Wild card
95 wins behind a balance d pitching staff, Guthrie is an Ace, Buck Showalter gets them playing hard and the lineup is as good as any in baseball this year, Vlad has periods in Camden Yards that make the jaw drop, MVP numbers from him, Derrick Lee has so many RBI chances that he is among the leaders too. The lineup is tough, on base constantly, no easy innings, many high scoring blow outs. Roberts, Markakis,Lee, Vlad and Reynolds become as tough as any first five in the game- like the Yankees, they will explode quite a few times give five run leads to the middle relievers.
Number 3 Tampa Bay - the loss of Crawford drags the offense down while new and younger players learn to fit in. Manny has a comeback, Damon can still play and the team wins 90 games, but this year the AL East is loaded, and 90 is 5 short of pay dirt. The team will probably be close all season but fade at the end when Baltimore and new York each show a small edge.
Number 4 Toronto
this line up is the home run barrage, three 30+ home run guys( Bautista, Lind, Hill,) nearly everybody with 20+, pitching needs to grow and develop some, bullpen could be good or very good, depends on Dotel. The team wins 85 games and neck and neck with Tampa. They get chewed up by NY and Baltimore, only hold their own against Toronto but dominate Boston. They lose to the Central power teams--Detroit and Minnesota and upstarts KC, lose big to Texas..they will lose to the big offense teams who have better pitching overall, but they will bludgeon the weaker hitting teams, those without dominant pitching- Angels,KC, Cleve, Seattle.
Last Place- Boston Red Sox
the shocker, the biggest choke since...well since one of Boston's other chokes. This team has the most talent of any in the game. Best balance of pitching, defense and even has speed. Every tool to be a dominant team. By talent would not lose 40 games all season, but will probably finish with 82-85 wins and last place.This year the AL East is loaded and the teams that do not play hard will falter, a last place team with 85 wins will be a record i think, but Boston figures to play with the least intensity. They could change all this, just get off to a great start and roll behind the starting pitching and explosive offense, but day in and out they will more likely get ground down. This year every game will be intense, and Boston figures to be the least intense though most talented team. They will lose to surprising teams- Oakland, Seattle, and to teams that match up well but play harder- Texas, Minnesota, Detroit.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
the AL East...
Boston as has been the case most of the past 20 years has the best talent in the game. This year as the past three the best pitching in either league starters and relief. They have added the single most impactful player in the game today- Carl Crawford, a top five run producer Adrian Gonzales. They have depth at every position including minor league pitching more than ready for the majors...ripe on the vine . I expect them to finish last, because this season I expect the teams that play hard will do best--call it the Showalter Factor.
When the Orioles added manager Buck Showalter, it upset the balance. A mediocre team became the toughest team in the division--yes, the most difficult team to beat. Now he will have a full season to see if his will to win has been tempered by enough maturity to endure--I think it has, and the rivalry this year will be a wonderful one-- Yankees- Orioles fight it out for the AL East-- the wild card will likely come from the Central - Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota in a division where every team plays hard. Texas should cruise in the west- too much pitching, defense, hitting, and power for Oakland.
The AL east will have NY, Baltimore and possibly Toronto in the mix depends on whether they can patch together a better bullpen, they are slight;y better than Tampa as it is. I think Tampa and Boston will battle to avoid last place. Amazing for such deep pitching, talented rosters- Evan Longoria and Crawford among the game's elite- battling for last...Yes the AL is that good this season.
The Yankees will eventually pull away, if Pettitte comes back they will win by10 games or more if not, more like 3-5, but the Orioles make the difference- play hard and the soft teams-- Tampa and Boston will fall to the tough, inspired play of Orioles and Toronto;I expect both will fall below .500.
This will be a different and entertaining season, where toughness and resilience will be the premium commodities--- every game a potential gut-check...decided by luck, clutch offense and defense, and bullpen strength.
When the Orioles added manager Buck Showalter, it upset the balance. A mediocre team became the toughest team in the division--yes, the most difficult team to beat. Now he will have a full season to see if his will to win has been tempered by enough maturity to endure--I think it has, and the rivalry this year will be a wonderful one-- Yankees- Orioles fight it out for the AL East-- the wild card will likely come from the Central - Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota in a division where every team plays hard. Texas should cruise in the west- too much pitching, defense, hitting, and power for Oakland.
The AL east will have NY, Baltimore and possibly Toronto in the mix depends on whether they can patch together a better bullpen, they are slight;y better than Tampa as it is. I think Tampa and Boston will battle to avoid last place. Amazing for such deep pitching, talented rosters- Evan Longoria and Crawford among the game's elite- battling for last...Yes the AL is that good this season.
The Yankees will eventually pull away, if Pettitte comes back they will win by10 games or more if not, more like 3-5, but the Orioles make the difference- play hard and the soft teams-- Tampa and Boston will fall to the tough, inspired play of Orioles and Toronto;I expect both will fall below .500.
This will be a different and entertaining season, where toughness and resilience will be the premium commodities--- every game a potential gut-check...decided by luck, clutch offense and defense, and bullpen strength.
Sunday, January 23, 2011
2011- first look
Starting pitching is the concern, and the Yankees will hope Andy Petitte un-retires because with him they have a chance that seems so much smaller without him. If he retires then there will be some actions- like a journeyman signing- Kevin Millwood type I like Freddy Garcia among the available, but the spring will bring a search among the minor leaguers. This is a good thing for the system, there is a benefit when the parent club fills from within the organization. The Yankees have some excellent prospects...the more talented seem to be a year away- Banuelos in particular- an exciting prospect. This season shows there is more than one way to be formidable- starting and relievers ina balance that can be dominant. The Angels did this for years, in the NL it is more common- pitchers leave for offensive chances in the 6th inning and later- even when pitching well. With Soriano and Rivera- the Yanks will have a great chance to keep a late lead; with Marte ( if healed) and Robertson they can hold a lead or keep a game close in the 6th -7th. This is the plan and it is a good one- it will be a strength if Joba Chamberlain can be come a force again- a guy to come in and stop a rally with power fastballs and strikeouts on breaking balls. Feliciano is a great addition, could appear in 80 games, two or three outs per, a big role and a mix and match guy with Joba.
The Yanks could play 6 inning games--the opposition often held helpless in late innings. A summer of late game lightning and heroics- the offense should be terrific- Teixera and ARod could be the best tandem in the game, and Andruw Jones-- could be a 20+ homer guy who makes a good offense into an avalanche against lefty pitching. Look for Jeter [200 hits/120 runs], Cano[ 200 hits/100 rbi] and Posada [20 homers /90 rbi] to have big years--huge offensive years.
This should be a fun season, Baltimore and Detroit will be stronger, Boston I think will flop, big time finish near the bottom of the division-- and Tampa will surprise. The league will play tougher this year, and character teams will rise like cream. Toronto has a chance to stay in the hunt all season as pitching improves, the Orioles will absolutely contend, Boston will likely suffer from a lack of toughness- except for Crawford and Youkilis- an exceptionally soft collection of players.
ahh Spring...can see it in the wet snow...
The Yanks could play 6 inning games--the opposition often held helpless in late innings. A summer of late game lightning and heroics- the offense should be terrific- Teixera and ARod could be the best tandem in the game, and Andruw Jones-- could be a 20+ homer guy who makes a good offense into an avalanche against lefty pitching. Look for Jeter [200 hits/120 runs], Cano[ 200 hits/100 rbi] and Posada [20 homers /90 rbi] to have big years--huge offensive years.
This should be a fun season, Baltimore and Detroit will be stronger, Boston I think will flop, big time finish near the bottom of the division-- and Tampa will surprise. The league will play tougher this year, and character teams will rise like cream. Toronto has a chance to stay in the hunt all season as pitching improves, the Orioles will absolutely contend, Boston will likely suffer from a lack of toughness- except for Crawford and Youkilis- an exceptionally soft collection of players.
ahh Spring...can see it in the wet snow...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
