the AL East...

Boston as has been the case most of the past 20 years has the best talent in the game.  This year as the past three the best pitching in either league starters and relief.  They have added the single most impactful player in the game today- Carl Crawford, a top five run producer Adrian Gonzales. They have depth at every position including minor league pitching more than ready for the majors...ripe on the vine .  I expect them to finish last, because this season I expect the teams that play hard will do best--call it the Showalter Factor.

When the Orioles added manager Buck Showalter,  it upset the balance.  A mediocre team became the toughest team in the division--yes, the most difficult team to beat. Now he will have a full season to see if his will to win has been tempered by enough maturity to endure--I think it has, and the rivalry this year will be a wonderful one-- Yankees- Orioles fight it out for the AL East--   the wild card will likely come from the Central - Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota in a division where every team plays hard. Texas should cruise in the west- too much pitching, defense, hitting, and power for Oakland.

The AL east will have NY, Baltimore and possibly Toronto in the mix depends on whether they can patch together a better bullpen, they are slight;y better than Tampa as it is.  I think Tampa and Boston will battle to avoid last place.  Amazing for such deep pitching, talented rosters- Evan Longoria and Crawford among the game's elite-  battling for last...Yes the AL is that good this season. 

The Yankees will eventually pull away, if Pettitte comes back they will win by10 games or more if not,  more like 3-5,  but the Orioles make the difference- play hard and the soft teams-- Tampa and Boston will fall to the tough, inspired play of Orioles and Toronto;I expect both will fall below .500. 

This will be a different and entertaining season, where toughness and resilience will be the premium commodities--- every game a potential gut-check...decided by luck, clutch offense and defense, and bullpen strength.

2011- first look

Starting pitching is the concern, and the Yankees will hope Andy Petitte un-retires because with him they have a chance that seems so much smaller without him.  If he retires then there will be some actions- like a journeyman signing- Kevin Millwood type I like Freddy Garcia among the available, but the spring will bring a search among the minor leaguers.  This is a good thing for the system, there is a benefit when the parent club fills from within the organization.  The Yankees have some excellent prospects...the more talented seem to be a year away- Banuelos in particular- an exciting prospect.  This season shows there is more than one way to be formidable- starting and relievers ina balance that can be dominant. The Angels did this for years, in the NL it is more common- pitchers leave for offensive chances in the 6th inning and later- even when pitching well. With Soriano and Rivera- the Yanks will have a great chance to keep a late lead; with Marte ( if healed) and Robertson they can hold a lead or keep a game close in the 6th -7th.  This is the plan and it is a good one- it will be a strength if Joba Chamberlain can be come a force again- a guy to come in and stop a rally with power fastballs and strikeouts on breaking balls.  Feliciano is a great addition, could appear in 80 games, two or three outs per, a big role and a mix and match guy with Joba.

The Yanks could play 6 inning games--the opposition often held helpless in late innings.  A summer of late game lightning and heroics- the offense should be terrific- Teixera and ARod could be the best tandem in the game, and Andruw Jones-- could be a 20+ homer guy who makes a good offense into an avalanche against lefty pitching. Look for Jeter [200 hits/120 runs], Cano[ 200 hits/100 rbi] and Posada [20 homers /90 rbi] to have big years--huge offensive years.

This should be a fun season, Baltimore and Detroit will be stronger, Boston I think will flop, big time finish near the bottom of the division-- and Tampa will surprise.  The league will play tougher this year, and character teams will rise like cream. Toronto has a chance to stay in the hunt all season as pitching improves, the Orioles will absolutely contend, Boston will likely suffer from a lack of toughness- except for Crawford and Youkilis- an exceptionally soft collection of players.

ahh Spring...can see it in the wet snow...