Trading Johnson

There are no real positives to trading Randy Johnson...yes getting back prospects 1-2 years ready for MLB is a good thing... but for all the drama..Johnson has given the Yanks what they needed since he came to the team 200+ innings and 17 wins per season. Now that a lesser pitcher might have done even better is why they are trading him away..the Yankees would be fine without Johnson if they can put Pettitte in his place..Pettitte should be able to win about as many games as Johnson did.although it is hard to imagine him giving so many 7-8 inning performances. This comes back to the trade of Johnson you need to add a starter and a reliever to replace him. The Yanks don't have the replacement starter ... they will have to find one from Pavano, Rasner, Karstens, and Humberto Sanchez. Sanchez might be the best arm and Karstens the most consistent in this group. The Yanks could still sign a budget guy like Piniero who has a good upside. The reliever could be Britton obtained from the Orioles, Gonzales from Pittsburgh, or TJ Beam from AAA. Mussina, Pettitte, Wang, Igawa could be a very solid rotation in front of a five deep bullpen of Britton, Bruney, Proctor, Farnsworth, and Mo and a spot lefty. Pavano will be a good test of whether the Yankees have a legendary degree of patience to go with their legendary offense this season.

Igawa Could be a Kei

Kei Igawa may wind up being the best bargain of the winter even better than the fantastic bargain of Angels sending the best set up man in the game-Brendan Donnelly- to Boston for a broken down minor league lefty. Donnelly like most Angels pitchers benefited from a high level of defense and Scioscia calling pitch sequences. He may merely be excellent in Boston rather than fantastic as he was in California. Igawa with the Yankee offense and relief may wind up starting 30 games and winning 12-15 games. Beckett won 15 for the Sox last season for a lot more money. Igawa will have to learn to compete in MLB and adjust to the hitters and the strike zone but he has the tools to do it--a strong personality, a decent fast ball, excellent control and a good change up. Once hitters time his fastball he will be able to get swings and misses with his change of speed. Johnson will probably be traded but I don't see the Yankees signing Zito. There will be a great deal of angst but $140 m is just too much to invest in one pitcher. The Yanks can trade for better from Florida or even Arizona and promote Hughes and Humberto Sanchez in the second half of the season.

Pitching is still the goal

The Yankee offseason goal has not changed--Pitching. Now, they have made some progress they lost Wright and his iffy five innings. He has been replaced by an unknown Igawa who has promise. If Igawa can learn to be as effective here as he was in Japan, he will be as good as the Yankee have. They added Pettitte to be the No.2 starter behind Mussina. Wang, Igawa, Mussina, and Pettitte. This group has an upside in Wang and Igawa who will offer some opportunity for growth based on age and experience. Now the No.5 guy is Randy Johnson but he may not be able to go in the first half--Pavano if he is between injuries may be called upon rather than traded--Pavano needs to pitch in the 2nd half of the season because next year is his walk year-when he has to earn his next contract. Pavano could be helpful this year if he wants to show the league he is a good investment for the next four years. The bullpen needs another high quality arm--Gonzalez from Pittsburgh would be good but not if it costs Melky-- Melky Cabrera could be a .280/30 hr/100 rbi guy in the outfield with some speed that's a high price for a lefty setup guy. The Yankees need to find an Owner who will be "lodge brother" nice to them the way the Angels gave Boston a great -all star - reliever Brendan Donnelly for a rookie with a bad arm-- wow, that Boston front office--legendary , eh? I think the Angels would have traded Donnelly to the Yankees for say Rivera, Arod, Jeter, and Phillip Hughes and $100m to adjust salaries.

Red Sox Have Huge Talent Edge over the Yankees

Mike Bauman writing for MLB.Com baseball perspectives says the the Red Sox signing of Matsuzaka was needed to even the field with the Yankees, who- over and over let it said- have more money. Bauman is a great writer but on this point he is so very wrong. The Red Sox started the off-season with a dominant advantage in talent over the Yankees. There is no doubt: Schilling over Johnson; Beckett over Mussina; and Papelbon over Wang. The only Yankee advantage is Rivera and you need a lead for that to work. The Sox have the same formula that Detroit used to destroy the Yankees in the playoffs- dominant starters with or without pine tar on their hands. The Yankees should not do well head to head against the Red Sox--but last season they destroyed Boston -head to head- because Boston didn't play hard enough to win. In 2007, the Yankees will be less imposing without Sheffield- Abreu is not the same caliber hitter and cannot handle an elite fast pitch. Boston started with an advantage and then broke the bank to sign Matsuzaka away from the Yankees because they had more money to spend--They can find bullpen help from their deep, minor league system--also loaded with talent. The Sox now have an insurmountable paper advantage in talent--only they can mess up the season and lose to the Yankees--despite their talent --AGAIN.

Clemens Can Help

The Yankees will look at Roger Clemens for the 2nd half of the upcoming season and there will be opportunities there. Clemens could come in and amp up the rotation--the no.5 starter might be moved to the bullpen and the plans to bring up some of the young arms might be postponed but it would be a thrill for the Yankee fans to see Clemens back in a pennant drive.
Boston has a huge advantage in talent over the Yankees. They have Matsuzaka now giving them four aces while the Yankees have none. They have time to fill their weakness at the closer spot; they have six-seven young arms starting with Lester, DelCarmen, and Hansen ready to play. They have Manny, Ortiz, and Drew in the rbi slots--they have COCO CRISP-- so it's hard to see how they can lose the AL East..but somehow..someway ..i expect they will. Even when they win a battle they seem to step in it--look at Matsuzaka-- they have already set the NEGATIVITY stage by signing him for Gil Meche money. His Agent can't wait for free agency for this guy at then end of his contract--like Clemens and Pedro before him- he may be the next late, great Boston pitching star--even before he signs his first deal--incredible.

Class

Maybe there is something to this Class thing that Yankees fans keep talking about-I have been hearing it for decades in connection with the Yankees--their class and their occasional lapses too- Irabu wasn't a toad--he just had a worn out arm- sort of like Randy Johnson--both managed to win in NY. Now the Matsuzaka thing--the Wednesday fly back to Boston to have the physical and the signing -pretty classy, yes-- but the whining over the price-- NOT CLASSY AT ALL-- REALLY REVEALING. Like a spoiled brat the Sox Organization is just showing an infantile personality. THEY bid $52M- nobody made them do it. THEY said Matsuzaka was their next Ace--nobody made them say it- after they won the bidding. THEY SAID they beat the Yankees to Matsuzaka- ok fair enough-- NOW PAY HIM WHAT AN ACE EARNS THIS YEAR AND GET ON WITH IT--you are not entitled to get your posting money back from Matsuzaka--RED SOX ARE MAKING SCOTT BORAS LOOK LIKE A DIPLOMAT--and that takes some doing. Matsuzaka by the Red Sox own reckoning is due Pettitte type money and more--Zito type money--5yrs =$90m ( plus 52 equals $24M per year) the Yankee fans say CONGRATULATIONS! can't wait to see the $142M rookie pitcher.

Red Sox : ADrama in Two Parts

This will be brief--Yes the Red Sox have put out some press that Matsuzaka is in danger of failing--they have themselves to thank for the mess they are in--they have set the value on this player by the size of the posting fee. $50M is hard to ignore--that's half a Carlos Lee, or 45% of a Beltran or Soriano-- of course those deals are for multiyears and at 5 years the Sox have already agreed to pay $10M per year. Add to that the salary(with no luxury tax) and you have a 18M/year player--whoa that puts the player salary below Lilly and Meche- Matsu is a Lilly and a Meche --so Pettitte money is called for --that would put Matsu at $27M per year for five years of a guy who's arm has been put through the Japan baseball wringer. Well as you all know, it is the Yankees who have caused all of this--well after all if the Yankees had signed Matsu they would have an edge in talent--well they didn't sign Matsu, they don't have an edge in talent; they haven't had an edge in talent since 1998. What we are seeing here is the Boston Drama Club at it's best -- like a five year old's imagination--creating monsters in the dark to scare itself then bravely sticking it's head out of the closet. The Red Sox will sign Matsuzaka and again send salaries spiraling upward( Like Manny six years ago) and again they will-with a straight face- BLAME THE YANKEES.

Matsuzaka- What A Joke!

They put out a report on ESPN that the negotiations between the Sox and Boras/Matsuzaka have broken down--what a joke- Matsuzaka will be signed by the Red Sox--they cannot fail to do this after selling it to their fan base and to the Japanese public as well--and whatever they spend will be recovered in the business cycle of the next several seasons- in all likelihood- due to increased income from the Japan market. Matsuzaka is not needed by Boston true--they already by their own admission have the best starting rotation in baseball Schill, Beckett, and Papelbon are Aces--nobody else has three--many like the Yankees don't even have ONE. They have made it their mission to put four Aces on the field with Wakefield and they will need to do that in order to get into the playoffs. For Boston- just having the best talent is never enough..they seem to want a team that can't possibly lose. Most teams have rarely had a hitter as dominant as either Ortiz or Manny--they have both. Varitek is the best catcher in the league and Lowell is the best 3B --and they got rid of that awful Damon and now have Coco Crisp!! You would think that they would put some of that young pitching into a deal for a closer. They have given away the kind of talent(Annibal Sanchez) that they are paying $100m for this year in Matsuzaka-- and that says a lot about why Yankee fans so enjoy watching Red Sox Nation. So enjoy the drama but we all know how this story ends- they sign Matsuzaka.

Relief Takes Center Stage

Welcome back Andy Pettitte and say goodbye to the mystery of the starting rotation: Pettitte, Mussina, Wang, Igawa, and the best prospect(Karstens, Rasner, Sanchez) will start the spring and could be effective with the Yankee offense behind them IF the bullpen does its job and Rivera, Farnsworth, Bruney, and Proctor is not an overwhelming group. Dotel was part of the plan to create a dominant bullpen but he got well, got expensive, and got lost to KC--so where do you find a dominant arm-- nowhere-so look for great young arms to groom for the role you will need in September. TJ Beam showed he had a world class arm- mid-90's velocity but needs to develop his off speed pitches. If he does he will play a big role- to relieve or avoid fatigue in the middle reliever group. Britton -obtained from the Orioles- showed he could handle the role of the first guy out of the pen-usually 5th-6th inning for 3-5 outs. He could be a key this season if he can handle 50-60 innings in about 40-45 appearances-he would solve the bullpen problem which is they lack about 60 innings of work to avoid overuse of the middle relievers: Proctor and Bruney and a lefty to be named. The Yankees found Jose Veras late last year- a good short/middle man. Rivera and Farnsworth will split the save situations about 80%-20%. Farnsworth and Bruney figure to handle critical 8th inning spots. Proctor will wind up working 6-9 depending on the game and could be the guy who saves the pen by effectively holding leads. The Yankees still need to find their lefty.

Now There Are Signs of Life

Andy Pettitte coming back to the rotation is really icing on the cake--the real news is that the Yankees have demonstrated the curious situation of spending for talent in MLB today. There has been this article of faith the the Yankees have driven the market to extremes there has been a campaign against them--sort of like in Gulliver's travels when the giant got hogtied by the Little people--and a special punishment tax-now at 40%. The tax is a simple confiscation and for years the teams that got the money seemed to pocket it. Now and this has almost always been the case the Yankees have been hampered by the incredible spending of the other teams. Ted Lilly is not a $10m/ year talent. Good teams beat him like a drum. Gil Meche has potential but he should deliver on it before he gets more than the payroll of three or four teams. Pettitte is not worth $20M but he is worth $14-15m ( what he got less the tax) in todays market he might have gone for more. The Yankees didn't do Manny for $18M five years ago. They didn't do Arod for $25m, they didn't do Beltran or Soriano either...so lets get over this anti-Yankee nonsense and deal with the real Matsuzaka-$100m+ for a rookie? For cryin' out loud--somebody is wa-a-a-y off base on who and what is driving the market for talent.

Welcome Back...

Andy Pettitte finally got the offer he should have gotten years ago to play for the Yankees. I and nearly every other Yankee fan hopes he accepts it--not just because we are tired of seeing Boston dominate the headlines-which we certainly are- but because this is one of the regrets--like when Rivera misplayed the bunt in the series against Arizona--double play world series title--error -world series loss--letting Pettitte go was a big error.
It is not that he is the best lefty in the game or even on the market--I suspect that the offer to Pettitte would equal the offer to Zito on a per year basis-- but Pettitte was one of the guys in the organization who seemed to be the kind of player you needed for the Yankees--he was above all the nonsense and craziness of NY--he had a firm compass for his life and he seemed to be able to find joy in being a Yankee. Only a few seem to be able to survive and prosper in Pinstripes--Bernie , Jeter, Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte came out of AAA Columbus and seemed to take going to the big club in stride. Anyway, in life there are only a few chances it seems to do something over and do it right--this week the Yanks got a do-over and have done it right.

Yankees on the Right Course-Sox Maybe Not

The Yankees have Kei Igawa coming on board with $26m in posting fees and will try to close the deal for four years @$6/year- roughly what they paid Jaret Wright less the tax- Wright was a $10m guy ($7m + 40% tax). The Yankees think Igawa can give them more than Wright which would be 180-190 innings and 18 quality starts. The key is in the poorer starts can Igawa go more innings than Wright and the answer is probably yes. Igawa has a strike out arsenal- a good fastball and a curve or change. Wright had a good fastball but a flat slider and a poor change. Wright couldn't avoid contact. Igawa represents a potential upgrade--he hasn't played yet so who knows. The Sox on the other hand are heading towards the Red(faced Sox again. Matsuzaka can hold them up and they will be paying him more than Schilling, Beckett, or Wakefield. Papelbon willl earn a small %ge of Matsuzaka money. The Sox don't need Matsuzaka-they have Lester and Hansen and some other young arms backed up at AAA. They are going to force themselves into some trades for offense by giving up young pitching like last year with Arroyo. They seem to be afraid to trade Manny- the Yanks traded Sheff- for very little really- but they kept Melky Cabrera to be the OF for the next decade. The player the Yankees should covet is Florida's Miguel Cabrera ( Sanchez, Britton, TJ Beam, and even Melky) get this guy if you can- put him at 1b and break the Curse of the GOP.

Starting Pitching for '07- update

Johnson, Mussina, Wang, Igawa, and the best two of Rasner, Karstens, Humberto Sanchez will form the Yankee rotation to start the season unless something better comes along. Pavano will have to prove he is either ready to pitch or not tradeable to stay with the big club or he could be the best paid guy in AAA. The Yanks have moved on from Pavano and will try to hold on until their young arms are ready to take on the leading roles. They have a decent rotation and a good bullpen with Mo,Farnsworth, Proctor, and Bruney. They will have Britton and Jose Veras in AAA. They need a lefty or two and could keep Villone until a better option appears. If they had to go with Wang, Mussina, Igawa, Rasner, and Karstens-- they could still win if the bullpen and the offense can do their thing. Normally the Yanks would like to cover 1-7 with tried and true starters--but they need to make room for the young arms and this is how they used to do it. Rely on your offense and bullpen and hope the young guys build up to giving a quality start most of the time--and just as important--learning from the bad outings to improve at the major league level. Most can't just overpower hitters and if they do( see Papelbon) they can ruin a young career if allowed or encouraged to try. Pitching is an art and a science--not just a great throwing arm.