and they're off!!

2016 begins in frigid conditions but the competition is already warm and interesting. The American League wonders if it has a super team- Toronto and ts vaunted offense- or a group of closely matched competitors that will be decided by team balance and fortitude.  I think it is the latter- and the most balanced teams are the Yankees and the KC Royals.

The NL will be a pitcher's league this year as the off season was an arms race. Starters and relievers in combination will help a few teams stand out as their offense will perform well enough to win with great pitchig. San Fran ad the LA Dodgers are in the vanguard but so is Arizona. The Mets have the best balance and they should begin and end at the top.

More than predictions, this ought to be a year of great performances and great expectations. The Cubs will try again to break their hex but I wonder if the ChiSox won't be the big surprise this season.  Great matches in the offing include Toronto and Detroit, Boston and the Yankees, and the Baltimore Orioles- my official sleeper team for 2016.

2016 Forecast- the Pitching Outlook

Starting Pitching and Relief

The Yankees have a talented group of pitchers. With effective management, they can lead the team to a championship in 2016. Depth is a concern because injuries come to the young and old in this part of the game. The Yanks have some work to do to develop another starter and some right-hand relief pitchers.

~~Starting Pitching~~

Sabbathia will show the Yankees fans he still is an Ace. He found a knee brace at the end of the seaso that had him working well with a 2.89 era in his last five starts. With fine tuning of the control an approach, he is poised to get back to the top pf the rotation. The bullpen needs better management so that he won’t have to try to complete games unless they are Yankee blowouts.

Tanaka had some minor arm problems last season related to a bone spur. Now removed, he should be more effective than last season’s 3.54 era. He has remarkable control and poise. With better health, his velocity will rise and the home runs allowed will go down. He can throw his splitter less and remain effective; he is an Ace.

Pineda is stl the guy with the most unhittable assortment as he showed with a 16 strikeout game  against Baltimore last  Mother’s Day.  He has developed tools to get by in days his big slider is not so big, he can be precise and use exceptional control and command to win battles. He must figure out how to grip the ball better in cool weather and gain confidence in a cool weather approach. That is all that is blocking his path to being one of the best in the AL.

Eovaldi added a split to his high 90’s fastball and it is devastating. It looks like the fastball but doesn’t rise, and that is the opposite action that pitcher’s need, two pitches that look similar and end up in opposite places. With an improved slider command he can win 20. Last season 14-3 was a breakout as talent and results began to equalize.

Severino was the best pitcher at the end of the season with a sub 3.00 era and winning five of 11 starts. With a full season to use his high-90’s fastball and improved change-up he can carve up those big swinging AL hitters. Severino has potential to be the number 1 starter for the Yanks.

Nova will be the valuable number 6 starter and the Yanks wil have some months where they wil use  six starters. Nov will let the Yanks rest tanaka and the others for a start here and there and this can save the staff from fliing into tired arm and tired arm habits the cause injury. Niva is valuable.

Number 7 starter is the next project in this unfinished team, Kaprellian is the next in line if he continues to develop at AAA. The Yanks traded for Luis Cessa and he has some potential.  A free agent signing or trade can do the job; the Yanks have an abundance of outfielders in the minors that are major league ready.

~~The Bullpen~~

Aroldis Chapman will likely serve a suspension of some length because baseball needs to prove it is tough on domestic violence.  Here’s to hoping he deserves to be punished rather than needs treatment. Once that is resolved, he may become the yanks most important reliever and finally replace Mariano Rivera as a lock-down ninth inning guy. The one who tells the opposition they will be lucky and rare to score a ninth inning run.

Dellin Betances is the best guy to shut down a rally and build a scoreless bridge to the ninth. He can overpower batters with 98-100 mph heat, he can finesses with a knuckle-curve. He has learned to handle bad calls and close no-calls better. His strikeout rate is the best in baseball.

Andrew Miller saved 36 games last season and had a terrific start before wearing down from overuse. Chapman’s presence and experience as the go to giuy will help. Miller wiol close some and set-up some. He wil have less stress and overuse.

Chasen Shreve and Jacob Lindgren are the younger lefties that can make the relief corps special. Lindgren has a great breaking ball and Shreve at times last year was unhittable. They mix slower speeds than the big three which is also refreshing. They have some other big lefty arms like Pazos and Tyler Webb.

The right handed relief is the missing link. So far, there are a lot of big armed candidates like Pinder, Rumbelow and Brian Mitchell who have mid-90’s fastballs and enough secondary pitches to be excellent. The Yanks have young right handed talent that is untried like Barbato and Domingo German- guys with great minor league records and stats; they are ready for trial in the spring. They need to find two and then find two more to cultivate for later in the season.

Yanks Looking Good for 2016

Many experts pick the Yankees to do poorly in 2016, worse than in 2015's wild card  game flame out. There is evidence to the contrary that suggests they will contend for the championship in 2016 as an elite AL team.

They have an elite offense, a solid defense, very good starting pitching, and the framework for a dominant bullpen. They can correct the weaknesses from the past season when a lack of depth forced them to wear down their aging stars and lose momentum at the championship phase of the season.

Fixed Weaknesses
Their weaknesses last season were in the persons of Jacoby Ellsbury, CC Sabbathia, right handed relievers, and Manger Joe Girardi's tendency to drive for the finish line far too soon.

• CC Sabbathia fixed his approach and physical issues near the end of the season and once again was effective on both sides of the plate. His last ten starts showed the kind of consistent performance the Yanks will need all season. 
• Ellsbury is a part-time player and the Yanks added a CF in the trade for Aaron Hicks who can replace Ellsbury 's offense and defense.
• The other drags on last season were injuries to Gartner and Teixera that reduced their outstanding seasons at the worst possible time. Greg Bird can step in for Teixera's left hand power and Hicks will backup Gartner.
• Bullpen depth was a critical problem as Miller and Betances were badly overworked and many games were lost due to a missing right handed middle relief.  Aroldis Chapman will close this season and push Betances to the 7th and 8th innings where he can affect many more games than as part time closer.

 New Talent
The Starling Castro trade gives them an All-Star talent at 2B to go along with their young rising SS- Didi Gregorious. The Yanks added depth for Infield withsome power in Ackley, Gary Sanchez and the minor league callup Refsnyder will help late in the season.  Sanchez is important because on days that he catches, they yanks offense will not have to sacrifice one of its best bats. Sanchez is a stud.

More Moves to Come
The starting pitching has  five excellent pitchers and at some point they may get a trade with Oakland for Sonny Gray by giving up some pitching and outfield  prospects. Tanaka, Eovaldi, Pineda, and Severino comprose one of the best groups in the AL. Facing any of them on a given day with Chapman, Miller and Betances in the late innings is not a formula for optimism. Most opponents will have to struggle to score runs on those arms.