Wednesday, February 23, 2011

on balance...

there is a balance that makes the essence of a team in baseball, you must hit, run, play defense, absorb the opposition's best then somehow, and often, emerge victorious; a grueling marathon march of a quarter of a man's year--a defining time for a baseball player-- the wonderment of a baseball fan.
This season for the Yankees promises to be one like few others-- when the weight of winning will be a light burden, and the joy of it usually intense.  The odds are against, the deck which was always stacked-- I mean Selig and his mighty men take money from the Yankees and give it to their opponents[ this is most unusual for a competition].  Then there are the fantasies invented to vilify the team- that simply does nothing except invest in the on field product and project its legendary image:  they are too big, too much money, and money buys championships.  Well, just look at the National League-  the Mets make a lot of money, the Marlins don't.  The Marlins have won as many titles as the Mets- 2.  Arizona has won more than the Chicago Cubs in the past 25 years, trails by only one despite the Cubs having a 90 year head start, and a lot of money to spend. Yankees were beaten by the Marlins in a year when the Marlins payroll would not have paid the Yankees rotation.
This year will be a year when winners win, not talent, not payroll-which is always a burden never an edge- not reputation; not home town umpiring as in Boston.  None of these things will matter as much as the will to win.  Tight competition, and the Yankees will have a wonderful edge in winning, they lack pitching, speed, defense in the outfield---but they have hitters who are clutch, and bullpen arms that are clutch--and will have all year to temper nerves of steely-blue like the cap, and a classic ending...like pinstripes, and an interlocking--NY

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Sunday, February 20, 2011

projecting the AL East

Number 1- clear and easy choice here- NY Yankees
The Yankees will play hard this year, score 900 runs as some veterans return to form-Burnett wins 15 games, Jeter, ARod, Posada  and Andruw Jones turns out to be 30 homers in part time play.  Eric Chavez adds a left handed power guy. The pitching takes off after a late season trade for a front end arm, and Montero adds another star quality hitter to the leagues best lineup. The Yankees depth in pitching comes through, young arms step up and in short bursts show the dominant future that is coming, Dellin Betances, Brackman, Betances...two of these will have a shot to be rising stars, Ivan Nova will surprise, he is a change-up away from being a dominant AL pitcher.Yanks win 100 games, late inning relief is the key, the offense knows a late lead is likely o win- Mo and Soriano do great in their ONE SEASON together.  As a club the Yanks begin the vital transition to home grown pitching.  CC will leave at the end of the season so will Soriano. So the young arms, talented arms as Phil Hughes, Banuelos, Betances begin to become the new core.

Number 2- another clear and easy choice- Baltimore Orioles- Wild card
95 wins behind a balance d pitching staff, Guthrie is an Ace, Buck Showalter gets them playing hard and the lineup is as good as any in baseball this year, Vlad has periods in Camden Yards that make the jaw drop, MVP numbers from him, Derrick Lee has so many RBI chances that he is among the leaders too. The lineup is tough, on base constantly, no easy innings, many high scoring blow outs. Roberts, Markakis,Lee, Vlad and Reynolds become as tough as any first five in the game- like the Yankees, they will explode quite a few times give five run leads to the middle relievers.

Number 3 Tampa Bay - the loss of Crawford drags the offense down while new and younger players learn to fit in. Manny has a comeback, Damon can still play and the team wins 90 games, but this year the AL East is loaded, and 90 is 5 short of pay dirt. The team will probably be close all season but fade at the end when Baltimore and new York each show a small edge.

Number 4  Toronto
this line up is the home run barrage, three 30+ home run guys( Bautista, Lind, Hill,) nearly everybody with 20+, pitching needs to grow and develop some, bullpen could be good or  very good, depends on Dotel. The team wins 85 games and neck and neck with Tampa.  They get chewed up by NY and Baltimore, only hold their own against Toronto  but dominate Boston.  They lose to the Central power teams--Detroit and Minnesota and upstarts KC, lose big to Texas..they will lose to the big offense teams who have better pitching overall, but they will bludgeon the weaker hitting teams, those without dominant pitching- Angels,KC, Cleve, Seattle.

Last Place- Boston Red Sox
the shocker, the biggest choke since...well since one of Boston's other chokes.  This team has the most talent of any in the game.  Best balance of pitching, defense and even has speed.  Every tool to be a dominant team.  By talent would not lose 40 games all season, but will probably finish with 82-85 wins and last place.This year the AL East is loaded and the teams that do not play hard will falter, a last place team with 85 wins will be a record i think, but Boston figures to play with the least intensity.  They could change all this, just get off to a great start and roll behind the starting pitching and explosive offense, but day in and out they will more likely get ground down.  This year every game will be intense, and Boston figures to be the least intense though most talented team. They will lose to surprising teams- Oakland, Seattle, and to teams that match up well but play harder- Texas, Minnesota, Detroit.