the AL East...

Boston as has been the case most of the past 20 years has the best talent in the game.  This year as the past three the best pitching in either league starters and relief.  They have added the single most impactful player in the game today- Carl Crawford, a top five run producer Adrian Gonzales. They have depth at every position including minor league pitching more than ready for the majors...ripe on the vine .  I expect them to finish last, because this season I expect the teams that play hard will do best--call it the Showalter Factor.

When the Orioles added manager Buck Showalter,  it upset the balance.  A mediocre team became the toughest team in the division--yes, the most difficult team to beat. Now he will have a full season to see if his will to win has been tempered by enough maturity to endure--I think it has, and the rivalry this year will be a wonderful one-- Yankees- Orioles fight it out for the AL East--   the wild card will likely come from the Central - Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota in a division where every team plays hard. Texas should cruise in the west- too much pitching, defense, hitting, and power for Oakland.

The AL east will have NY, Baltimore and possibly Toronto in the mix depends on whether they can patch together a better bullpen, they are slight;y better than Tampa as it is.  I think Tampa and Boston will battle to avoid last place.  Amazing for such deep pitching, talented rosters- Evan Longoria and Crawford among the game's elite-  battling for last...Yes the AL is that good this season. 

The Yankees will eventually pull away, if Pettitte comes back they will win by10 games or more if not,  more like 3-5,  but the Orioles make the difference- play hard and the soft teams-- Tampa and Boston will fall to the tough, inspired play of Orioles and Toronto;I expect both will fall below .500. 

This will be a different and entertaining season, where toughness and resilience will be the premium commodities--- every game a potential gut-check...decided by luck, clutch offense and defense, and bullpen strength.